04/26/2010 大盘回顾 （NYHGH New High Again）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are OVERBOUGHT Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode

ATTENTION 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 16 unfilled up gaps. (max was 18) 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246. *0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH new high could mean SPX new high ahead. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE and CPC MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L 04/19 low   Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell     Non-Stop     OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP   4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX overbought and too high above MA(200). 0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: Ascending Triangle breakout, target $51.48. ChiOsc a little too high. IWM UP   ChiOsc a little too high. 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly): Too high above MA(200). CHINA ?   EMERGING UP   CANADA UP   BOND DOWN   0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Breakout of a Bull Flag, so yield could up while bond will be down. DOLLAR UP GOLD UP   GDX UP   OIL UP ENERGY UP   4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Breakout! FINANCIALS UP   ChiOsc a little too high. 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Too high above MA(200). REITS UP MATERIALS UP

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MOSTLY THE MONTH’S LAST TRADING WEEK WAS RED SINCE AUG 2009

See 04/23 Market Recap for more details.

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 05/06

The next potential turn date is 05/06 (+-) which could either be a top or a bottom depending on how the market marches to that date. See 04/16 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

 

虽然so far earnings season appears OK，不过还是维持中期roller coaster的预期。理由有二：

 

6.1.0 Extreme CPCE Readings Watch， 见蓝色虚线，CPCE extremely low，此后大盘都比较choppy。

 

 

T2111 from Telechart, percent of stocks 2 std dev above MA(200)，太高了，注意绿线和背景里代表SPX的蓝线的关系，也是比较choppy。

 

 

下面的图是Weekly T2111，可以看到目前的读数是非常extreme的，过去这么extreme，大盘也是比较choppy的。 

 

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A NEW HIGH AHEAD BUT MAY SEE SOME SHORT-TERM WEAKNESS FIRST

 

04/23 Market Recap里提到了，当NYHGH (NYSE New 52 Week Highs) extremely high的时候，第二天多半红多绿少，不过由于NYHGH通常要先形成negative divergence，market才可能top，因此NYHGH new high means SPX will have a new high ahead。今天我们已经有了new high，也red了，因此so far符合pattern。明天呢，也是同样的pattern，因为今天NYHGH又new high了。

 

 

6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch，今天算是bearish reversal day，虽然gap up非常非常小，anyway，这个图也是说short-term weakness，expect either pullback or consolidation ahead。

 

coppereye

沙发！

abaqus

2nd

abaqus

now read

consolidation ahead

Shafufu

Thanks a lot.

Prada!

thx

t-k

源济

wangbin

thx

southware

poohbear

回复 1# Cobra


        

wyemlyy

快！

 
TREND INDICATOR
MOMENTUM INDICATOR
COMMENT (Click link to see chart)

Long ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-4-26 18:50

soulvirus

thx

michaelzhang

oldfox

sfbayarea

donkeygirl

thanks

X中国陆军

abracadabra

Bencat