04/16/2010 大盘回顾 （Key Day Monday）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode

ATTENTION 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 16 unfilled up gaps. (max was 18) *0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE and CPC MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCE and CPC MA(5) too low. 8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: New record low. 04/14 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread at sentimentrader is too large. 04/14 Market Recap: Too many bearish extreme signals at sentimentrader. 04/14 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Indicator Score at sentimentrader is too high. *0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE broke the trend line, so top confirmed? CONCLUSION No technical damage, the uptrend is intact. Although there’re too many bearish signals but according to the past Major Distribution Day pattern, there’re good chances that the market was bottomed. So need see what the market will do the next Monday.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L *04/08 low *Adjust stop loss. Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell     Non-Stop     Newly added setup, will give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered. OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP   4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. IWM UP     CHINA ?     EMERGING UP     CANADA UP   4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): BPTSX is too high. BOND DOWN   DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. Morning Star plus ChiOsc a little low, could rebound further. *4.2.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Weekly): Hollow red bar, rebound? GOLD UP   GDX UP   Ascending Triangle, target $54.2. OIL UP ENERGY UP   FINANCIALS UP   REITS UP MATERIALS UP   4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE 

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 04/20

 

从下面的Gann Day table看，下一个重的日子是04/20，再下一个日子是05/06，because not only multiple historical Gann Days  are clustered together but also they’re important date according to the solar term as according to the Gann theory, market is likely to turn on those solar term date。大盘是跌到04/20然后反弹到05/06还是先反弹到04/20然后跌到05/06，目前还不好说。几率上讲，根据周五的After Bell Quick Summary提供的论据，周一多半反弹，这样看起来反弹到04/20的可能性比较大。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

 

Maintain the forecast for Roller Coaster ahead for 3 reasons:

1. According to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back (See 03/19 Market Recap for more details). Since we’ve seen the new high so now we may see the pullback.
2. Statistically when the market has been up especially at a 52 week high entering the earnings season, the average performance during earnings season is usually not good (See 04/09 Market Recap for more details).
3. 6.1.0 Extreme CPCE Readings Watch, take a look at how the market behave when CPCE was extremely low. I expect no difference this time (choppy ahead like past) especially when there’re simply so many bearish extremes accumulated in the table above.

 

SHORT-TERM: MIXED SIGNALS WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MARKET BEHAVES ON THE NEXT MONDAY

 

周五是Major Distribution Day (NYSE Declining Volume to Advancing Volume ratio > 9)，从下面的图可以看到自March 2009，most cases a Major Distribution Day就意味着the market bottom了。唯一的例外是June 2009，the market kept selling off the day after the Major Distribution Day，因此周五的sell off是意外还是pullback的开始，要看周一。周一green or 小红，则very likely the 04/15 high will be tested，周一大跌，则more pullbacks ahead。

 

 

The bottom line，虽然几率上讲，周一涨的可能性大(See Friday’s After Bell Quick Summary)，不过由于still too many bearish extremes (see table above)，因此the market反弹甚至new high后多半还会掉下来。换句话说，就是pullback是逃不掉的，只是早晚的问题。0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，CPCE trend line破了，confirm the market topped，老胡同都知道，这是个比较reliable的信号。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

brcm

..........蛇皮的。。呵呵...............

李隆基

IMeMyself

thanks

maomi

first page

stockgirl

First page! Thank you!

stockgirl

First page!

yw02

First Page!

surya

Thx a lot!

draguide

20108

Thanks

源济

dragoncat

Thanks a lot

mikeqc

回复 1# Cobra


    1st page

busted

Many thanks!

lehldk

我看了看有的个股，好象不会大跌。该拉的拉了，拉不出东西。
结论：good good study, day day up.

pig2006

朱坚强

oda

thanks

sooners

回复 1# Cobra