03/26/2010 大盘回顾 （Rydex traders are very bullish）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 16) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): NDXA50R is way too high. 03/25 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread is too large. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): *BPSPX too high. CONCLUSION Bearish signals are accumulated enough to justify a short sell. For aggressive traders only. 03/25, another Bearish Engulfing and the NYMO Sell setup was triggered.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L 03/15 low Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell 03/25 S 03/25 high VIX MA ENV     OTHER ETFs MID TERM INDICATOR COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP 3 of 3 BUY *6.4.6 QQQQ Black Bar Watch: doesn’t look good. *4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. IWM UP 2 of 2 SELL CHINA ? 1 of 1 BUY *4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Symmetrical Triangle, wait to see to which direction it will breakout. *Hits multiple MA resistance.   EMERGING ? 2 of 2 SELL *Could be a Roof pattern, 83% chances of breaking on the downside. CANADA UP 2 of 3 SELL *4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): 3 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is too high. Expect pullback. BOND DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Symmetrical Triangle breakdown. Expect more pullbacks ahead. DOLLAR UP 2 of 2 BUY Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. *3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min): Could be Head and Shoulders Top, target $23.74. *4.2.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Weekly): FXY breakdown below its long term trend line which is enough to set the intermediate-term from up to down. GOLD DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Black bar and on a MA support, could rebound. GDX DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Small Double Top, target $41.52. OIL ? 1 of 2 SELL *Roof or Double Top? ENERGY ? 3 of 3 SELL *Sell signals by MACD and BPENER. FINANCIALS UP 3 of 3 BUY *Double black bar plus Shooting Star followed by a Spinning Top, expect a pullback. *4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Fib confluences area is at $16.76 - $16.97, could be the intermediate-term target. REITS UP 2 of 2 BUY *False breakout on narrow range so the real breakout could be on the downside. MATERIALS ? 2 of 3 BUY *4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE LAST 3 TRADING DAYS OF MARCH ARE BEARISH WHILE APRIL 1ST IS VERY BULLISH

 

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. The last trading day of March, Dow down 10 of Last 15.
2. The first trading day in April, Dow up 12 of last 15.
3. the last 3 trading days of March is bearish, see Trading Trends: Last Four Trading Days of March.

其实见下图，最近7个月，几乎所有的月份，最后3个交易日都不怎么牛牛friendly。

 

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: PULLBACK FROM 03/25, REBOUND ON 04/01 THEN PULLBACK TO 04/12?

 

先列一下重要的时间点：

 

1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)，03/31和04/01是可能的的转折点。

 

 

4.1.9 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly)，本周或者下周都是可能的转折周。

 

 

Gann Day，四月重复最多的是04/11, 04/14, 04/15。我在03/22 Market Recap中提到过04/10，不过因为有绘图误差，所以真正的日期应该是04/12。它是10/10/2002 low to 10/11/2007 high的Fib 50% extension，根据Gann Theory，这是个很重要的时间点。这样综合起来，04/12 to 04/15这周发生转折的可能性很大。

 

 

4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)，见红实线，BPSPX太高，所以最多再涨一周，然后会有一到两周的pullback。

 

 

以上，综合起来，考虑到下周前三天bearish，而周四非常bullish的seasonality，我的猜测是可能下周收Doji，然后pullback到04/12。为什么不是跌到04/01然后涨到04/12呢？不要忘了4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)的BPSPX too high，所以pullback一周到两周可能性最大，这个也正好符合4.1.9 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly)。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

 

中期没有新东西，还是根据II Survey，看correction的人太多，所以大盘新高后会有真正的pullback。基本上我还是认为会重复2004年的roller coaster pattern。See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK AS EARLY AS THE NEXT MONDAY

 

周五的After Bell Quick Summary里提到了QQQQ黑棒棒，有74%的几率a red day the next day。

 

 

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)，可能是Head and Shoulders Top，而周五intraday的反弹看着象是Bear Flag。

 

 

Rydex Enthusiasm Index，散户炒底也太踊跃了点。

 

 

% of Rydex Sector Assets Above MA(50)，也是说散户太牛。

 

 

下面的图来自Bespoke，不会永远没有1%以上的decline吧？

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

 

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