Overbought is not a bad thing. It indicates strong momentum and implusive move. Short only when the momentum is weaken. Why short here when market just registered 10 plus consecutive green bars? At least you should wait till there are some red bars and then a few green bars indicating a top formation to short. Guessing the top is the hardest thing (more difficult than guessing a bottom). If you want to do short, wait till there is a lower high.
Indeed. Please go check the blog (my last one here), which showed how I shorted from 1080 without any stop. Also, when most people talked about short here in early Feb., I told CM, I would see him at new high. I have to keep my word, right?
Quite agree. When the market is strong, it can stay in the overbought territory for an extended period of time, killing shorts. Plus a lot easier to make money trading stocks with momentum in overbought territory than trying to predict the top and short the market. That being said, I think LZ has made some solid calls in HT. At least much better than some bears who would show up only when the market is in correction, scaring off folks trying to buy dip.