03/03/2010 大盘回顾 （The Appetite for Higher Beta Stocks is Too High）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 3 of 8 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Could be Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape: Could be another leg down to test the low.  0.0.8 SPX:CPCE: A top was confirmed. 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 14 unfilled gaps. (max was 15) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 9) 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: *Too high, topped? CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L breakeven Reversal Bar 02/26 L breakeven NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ   *Black bar, could pullback. IWM   *ChiOsc too high. CHINA   EMERGING Down *Black bar and under multiple MA resistances, could pullback. CANADA FINANCIALS   REITS   MATERIALS     ENERGY Down Broadening Top in the forming, the breakout direction is unknown. OIL   GOLD Down DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom. *ChiOsc too low. BOND Down

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: VERY CLOSE TO A TURNING POINT, NOT SURE IT’S A TOP OR BOTTOM THOUGH

 

See 03/01 Market Recap, there’re several cycles due this week or early next week, among them the 03/08 could be the most important one. The market rises into 03/08 then 03/08 could be a top while the market drops into 03/08 then 03/08 could be a bottom.

 

SHORT-TERM: A TOP COULD BE VERY CLOSE

 

今天没啥新东西，很多同学不明白昨天报告的标题，其实就是指2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume，Nasdaq volume to NYSE volume ratio too high，表示大家过分追求高风险高回报的东东，因此往往意味着top。前两天的报告，我还有所保留，觉得ratio不够高，不过今天的ratio看起来差不多了，这个信号过去的表现大家可以自己看看8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV，so far非常准确。 因此建议牛牛at least take partial profits。顺便说，我的SPY ST Model是没有partial profit的设计的，所以不要指望它出sell信号。这个model大家应该观察很久了，so far还可以吧？除了经常会stop out flat，这其实是说大家在follow model的时候记得中间至少要主动take profit一次。

 

 

关于今天After Bell Quick Summary说的黑棒棒，可能很多同学都忘记过去的规律了，下面的图提醒一下。并不表示明天会red，但是多半a short-term top is close，market不马上pullback的话，多半会盘整几天，big up的几率不大。

 

 

1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)，cycle再看一下，越来越象top了。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.

 

德州牛仔

Thanks!

terranmn

black

 
TREND INDICATOR
MOMENTUM INDICATOR
COMMENT (Click link to see chart)

Long-term
3 of 3 are BUY
 
 

Intermediate
2 of 3 are BUY
4 of 6 are NEUTRAL
SPY ST M ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-3-3 20:14

明白！

xiaoyaoxl

顶

philles

support

soulvirus

thx

slcgh

thanks, COBRA

donkeygirl

thanks

Seawave

Cobra, breakpoint uses your charts on a daily base, do you know that?

dividend_growth

第一页！不容易啊！

Alchemist

quickcow

第一页！不容易啊！

summer123

Jinan90

谢谢，老大的帖子信息量太高，仔细学习中。与专业论文有一比。

like2swing

thanks.

ut1984

acoust

First page!

Cobra

Cobra, breakpoint uses your charts on a daily base, do you know that?
Seawave 发表于 2010-3-3 20:22

I'll check. But I doubt if I could do anything about it as long as my posts are free.

亥FAN

THANKS!