02/23/2010 大盘回顾 （Key Day Tomorrow）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 8 of 8 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH BEARISH 6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape: Could be another leg down to test the low.  0.0.8 SPX:CPCE: *A top could be confirmed. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model     Reversal Bar       NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ   IWM   ChiOsc too high. CHINA Down Double Top. EMERGING Down CANADA FINANCIALS Down REITS   MATERIALS   ChiOsc too high. ENERGY Down Broadening Top in the forming, the breakout direction is unknown. OIL   ChiOsc high. GOLD Down DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom.  ChiOsc too low. BOND Down

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

 

See 02/19/2010 Market Recap, not sure about the market direction, in wait and see mode.

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT MORE PULLBACKS, UP DAY TOMORROW MAY JUST DEALY THE INEVITABLE

 

今天的下跌还不说明什么，明天的涨跌才是最重要的，理由见下图，black bar followed by a big red bar下跌以后，如果明天收绿， 最近的pattern，反弹会有new recovery high。

 

 

1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，both SPY and QQQQ are now on multiple supports，因此明天收绿还是有希望的。

 

 

不过，如果明天反弹且此后几天能有new recovery high的话，建议牛牛减仓，因为既使是repeats上面图所示的黑棒棒加红棒棒后反弹的pattern，eventually there’re more pullbacks。此外下面还有几个理由：

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提到了6.4.7 NYSE Tick Watch (60 min)，SPY下跌超过1%，却没有-1,000的TICK reading，表示大家都没当回事，过去几次出现这种情况，此后都有大幅下跌。

 

0.0.8 SPX:CPCE，这是改进后的看顶信号，breakout of 3 points validated trend line是非常准确的top信号。

 

 

下面的图来自我blog的reader，The_Grim_Reaper，他发现最近6个月的最后3个trading day都比较bearish。

 

 

最后不要忘了1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily) and 1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases) Feb 28的Full Moon。March 1st是最近的cycle due date，反弹3天到那时的话，就是cycle top了，因此最终还是要掉下来的。当然，如果market不反弹，而是一路跌到March 1st的话，那March 1st就可能是cycle bottom了。这种一路跌到March 1st的走法，顺便说，是最符合0.0.8 SPX:CPCE的top信号的。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.

 

ppjeep

Ding!
[
b] 1# Cobra

gardener2000

thanks

helen1

thanks

newbee168

bd

ddr

expert3

Great

happyface

thanks

abaqus

pig2006

Thanks Cobra!

xiaoyaoxl

顶key day

hifive

hifive

QQQQ 恐怕跌不下去。 下面put 太多。

bayliner1979

1st page

registered

hnhy

Alchemist

gear

Thanks

quickcow

great as usual...

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