Highlights
Stocks and commodities dropped in immediate reaction to a much larger-than-expected level of jobless claims, at 473,000 in the Feb. 13 week vs. expectations for 440,000. There's important special factors possibly affecting the data but their effects are unknown and the Labor Department isn't offering any explanations. There was extremely heavy weather through most of the nation in the reporting week, and results from four states had to be estimated including the key states of Texas and California with holiday backlog in the latter having skewed prior reports.
Turning to the four-week average points to steady conditions in the labor market. The average fell 1,500 to 467,500, a level roughly in line with the last four weeks and in line with readings in late December. Other data in the report include no change for continuing claims, at 4.563 million, and no change in the unemployment rate for insured workers, at 3.5 percent.
Wait and see is the best approach to judge jobless claims. The weather effect may yet appear, having produced perhaps another backlog due to the closure of claims offices. The outlook for the jobs report in February is open which will put the emphasis on private forecasts especially ADP's tally. Markets are stable at slightly lower levels.
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