02/12/2010 大盘回顾 （Seasonality Not So Bull Friendly Next Week）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 8 of 9 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Bottom is close according CPC MA10. 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min): *Ascending Triangle in the forming. Target $111.72. BEARISH 6.3.0 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days: Another Major Distribution Day ahead? 6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape: Could be another leg down to test the low. 1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases): *Topped? 02/12 Market Recap: Seasonality is generally bearish next week. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model     *Short Tuesday if Open > Close. Reversal Bar     *Short Tuesday if Open > Close. NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ   Black bar, so a top is close? IWM   *ChiOsc a little too high. Price volume negative divergence. CHINA Down Double Top confirmed. EMERGING Down CANADA FINANCIALS Down Could be a confirmed Head and Shoulders Top. REITS   *Head and Shoulders Top? Target $38.64. MATERIALS   ENERGY Down Confirmed Double Top. OIL   GOLD Down DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28.  *Black bar, could pullback. BOND Down

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL PULLBACK TARGET MET BUT COULD BE MORE

 

No update, see 02/05/2010 Market Recap, Fib 38.2% retracement target was met, but I suspect there’s more. There’s a chance that after the pullback is over, we’ll see a new high followed by a bigger pullback thereafter.

 

SHORT-TERM: SEASONALITY IS NOT VERY BULL FRIENDLY THE NEXT WEEK  

 

02/11/2010 Market Recap: Ascending Triangle or Bear Flag?提到周五的涨跌，决定牛月亮还是熊月亮。1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases)，看起来象是top。

 

 

当然我知道，绝大多数人还是认为月亮superstitious，所以不一定说明什么。没关系，这里还有more statistics。

1. Days after the President’s Day was down 8 out of the last 10 years.
2. OE day next Friday was down 12 out of the last 16 years.
3. Take a look at statistics here: President's Day Trading.
4. Take a look at statistics here: President’s Day – But Not For The Markets.

最后看一下SentimenTrader的Seasonality chart。Not so bull friendly next week。周二是很bullish，不过我觉得应该以上面的1为准。本周五也是很bullish的，但是遇到the day before the President’s day was down 15 out of the last 18 years的统计，最后还是跌了，所以我觉得Days after the President’s Day was down 8 out of the last 10 years的统计更可靠些。

 

 

Well, what about the famous very very bullish Monday? 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，ChiOsc too high，往往意味着at least 4 hours pullback，plus从图上的数据可以看到周二高开，将是SPY的第12个gap，因此小心gap fade。 

 

 

再看一下最近领涨的QQQQ，1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min)，multiple resistances plus Bearish Rising Wedge。

 

 

另外不要忘了Cumulative TICK too high虽然不是exactly top，但是迟早是要还的，因此我不认为QQQQ还有多少上升空间。

 

 

总结一下，就是下周要小心，统计数据不是sure thing，但是也是不可以随便忽略的。年初，我说statistically，QQQQ从一月的第8个交易起到月底表现会很差，有多少人信的？最后的结局呢？0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals，自己对比一下，最近的反弹，跟过去的反弹有什么区别。

 

 

下面的Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows from StockTiming 应该很好的解释了为什么这次的反弹跟过去不一样。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in SELL mode, only SHORT candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Today’s screener has 1 stock found.

 

 

According to the entry rule, PBR found Thursday wasn’t confirmed.

 

xiaoyaoxl

沙发

xiaoyaoxl

2# xiaoyaoxl


\(^o^)/，第一次沙发

newyorker

给老大拜年！！！！

xiaoyaoxl

过去一周反弹的确弱，本来以为上周至少能到1100呢

ROOKIE2

过年好！

buctusa

虎年头一炮

apollochil

tortose

Thanks!

darren168

Happy New Year!

skipjack

Thanks Cobra, happy new year

Jeff

philles

Cobra and HTers: happy chinese new year!!

impresario100

RSIFAN

Thanks Cobra! Happy Chinese New Year!

whzdf

过年好！

股海无涯

hutong9

sfbayarea

JL01