02/05/2010 大盘回顾 （One More Drop?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 9 of 9 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottom is close? BEARISH 6.3.0 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days: *Another Major Distribution Day ahead? 6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch: *Another close low ahead? CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/04 S 1.9 x ATR(10) Reversal Bar 02/04 S *breakeven *Adjust stop loss. NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ   0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals: Falling Three Methods, bearish continuation 71% time. IWM     CHINA Down Double Top or Bearish 1-2-3 Formation? EMERGING   Bearish 1-2-3 Formation, target $36.34. CANADA Double Top, target $15.77. FINANCIALS   Bearish 1-2-3 Formation, target $13.40. *Could be a Head and Shoulders Top in the forming. REITS   Measured Move, target $41.54. MATERIALS     ENERGY   Could be a Double Top in the forming. OIL   *Could be a Double Top in the forming. GOLD Down Descending Triangle, target $91.08. DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. BOND   3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: *Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 34.43.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL PULLBACK TARGET MET BUT COULD BE MORE

 

4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)，the Friday low正好hit Fib 38.2%，满足minimum pullback的target，现在的问题是，是否pullback结束了？由于介次的pullback的幅度跟June 2009的pullback幅度相当，因此可以将两者做个简单的类比。有三个理由，可能pullback没完：

1. June 2009 pullback last 17 to 20 trading days，而现在是13 trading day，既然pullback幅度相当，那显然介次的pullback力度要比June 2009的大。
2. 从MACD看也是如此，June 2009的时候weekly MACD还是strong buy，而现在MACD已经是sell了。
3. 从NYSI STO看，一般pullback都会到20以下，June 2009就是介样，而现在离20还很远。

 

除了上面的理由以外，还有个非常重要的理由，下面的图来自www.stocktiming.com，大家可以看到现在的liquidity比June 2009要差了很多，而liquidity正是2009 huge rally的主要原因。

 

 

综上所述，pullback not over的可能性还是很大的。当然，最新的II survey看correction的，达到了record high，而根据过去的表现，介往往是短期底部的表现，market会有new high，然后才是真正的correction。俺目前比较倾向于这种推测。New high，俺不sure，不过根据过去的经验，huge rebound多半是可以预期的。那，rebound会不会就是从这周五开始？嗯，俺目前倾向于不是。广告过后，请继续收看下面的short-term analysis。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE AT LEAST ONE MORE DROP AHEAD  

 

先纠正一下周五After Bell Quick Summary的说法错误，俺说no capitulation volume，介个说法不对，应该以SPY为准，经back test验证，比较可靠的底部条件有三，周五符合了两个：

1. Volume is at least 2 times larger than its 100 day moving averages. (Check)
2. The day’s trading range > ATR(10) x 1.1. (Check)
3. Open below BB bottom. (Sorry, no, actually, it’s a gap up open last Friday)

 

当然条件3可能不是那么重要，尤其是周五的Hammer，有60%的机会leading to a bullish reversal， 因此俺不能据此否定周五是bottom的可能性。介个是要纠正的地方。此外，还有两个图，也支持bottom说：

 

6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch，介个周四的报告里说了，NYDNV:NYUPV > 35，意味着very close to a bottom。顺便说，从图上看，根据一个hammer就喊底，似乎并不可靠。

 

 

6.3.1 Major Accumulation Day Watch，注意下面的NYMO。NYMO的positive divergence是bottom的重要标志。

 

 

因此，综上所述，俺不排除周五就是short-term bottom的可能性。不过，有四个证据表明，SPX短期内至少会有一天close below 1063 (The last Thursday low)。

 

6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch，vertical dashed lines，NYADV下跌动能很大的时候，一般不会第一次反弹就成功的。

 

 

6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape，看一下最牛时期底部的形状，V shape bottom is rare because technically nobody can stand on just one leg.

 

 

6.3.0 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days，很多同学可能忘了，Major Distribution Day的两个预言，一是已经兑现的，6.3.2a Major Distribution Day Watch，most likely a green close the next day，另一个则是，Major Distribution Day seldom comes alone, usually there’s another one。

 

 

最后一个理由，看HERE，数据统计并不支持immediate rebound。Mr. Majeasy在俺的After Bell Quick Summary comment area也有个统计，同样不支持immediate rebound。(For completeness of this report, I screenshot-ed the statistics below, but the credit should be given to http://www.tradingtheodds.com, please visit for more details.)

 

 

最后再总结一下，there’s a chance that we may have seen a bottom the last Friday, but very likely the last Friday’s low will be tested and SPX will close below 1063. One more word, there’s no sure thing in the trading world, such as very very bullish Monday, I simply sense that in my forum, people are too optimistic about the Friday’s bottom.

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in SELL mode, only SHORT candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Today’s screener has 0 stock found.

 

According to the entry rule, JCP found on Thursday was  confirmed.

 

happyface

沙发

bigbank

Thanks.

option88

Ding!

牛熊

ban deng!

livefreakss

repslans

2# happyface


Bandeng

源济

时利和

终于等到了.

impresario100

soulvirus

first page

spo

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fead

thanks!

tortose

Thank you!

风清扬

hutong9

牛熊

非常详细

lite1067

这个报告，老蛇花了不少心血。。多谢。

busywind

DING!!!

student009

Thanks!