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发表于 2010-2-4 01:43 AM
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(ZT) Recall that during last year’s pullbacks, which typically started late in a month and lasted into the first several trading days of a new month (mid-June to early July, late August, late September and late October), stocks went straight up for days following the pullbacks and reached new recovery highs soon afterward.
While the same scenario could happen again this go around, there are some notable differences in this latest pullback.
First, the slope of 50-day moving averages of the major indexes remained up in last year’s pullbacks. This time, they all point lower suggesting a change in the intermediate trend.
Second, the momentum readings dipped lower this time than those during previous pullbacks.
Lastly, the dollar was in a downtrend during the second half of the last year. (Remember all that talk about the inverse relationship between equities and the greenback?) Now, the dollar is in an uptrend. The depreciating dollar allowed the materials and tech sectors to lead the rallies last year. Which sector will take the lead now? The market hasn’t shown us yet. |
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