01/27/2010 大盘回顾 （Key Day Tomorrow）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 7 of 8 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH 2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily): Looks like VIX trend was reversed to down from up. BEARISH CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 01/27 S *1.9xATR(10) *Click links above for ATR value. May not be a good timing to short here. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell 01/21 S Breakeven VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. IWM & QQQQ 8.2.9a QQQQ – 2009  - 8.2.9h QQQQ – 2002: Seasonality is bearish until the end of January. 1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily): *Bullish Engulfing, bounce from trend line, looks bullish. EMERGING 1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily): Double Top or Bearish 1-2-3 Formation? CANADA TSX 1.5.0 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Daily): Double Top, target $15.77. FINANCIALS 3.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Pay attention to ChiOsc, maybe too low. REITS MATERIALS 3.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Daily): ChiOsc is very oversold now. OIL & ENERGY 3.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily): Very oversold plus hollow red bar, could rebound soon. GOLD 3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily): On multiple support, could rebound soon. DOLLAR 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): *Could be a H&S Bottom breakout! BOND 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Could be a Bull Flag. So yield could rise while bond should fall.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION TARGET FOR INDU COULD BE AROUND 9727

 

No update. According to chart 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, the correction target could be around 9727.

 

SHORT-TERM: TWO CYCLES DUE, NEED SEE TOMORROW TO KNOW IF THEY MEAN TOP OR BOTTOM

 

明天很关键，因为明天和30号分别有2个cycle due，可能是potential turn date。

 

1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min)，介个成功喊顶(see 01/20/2010 Market Recap)，应该有点credit了吧？明天早盘大涨，那就可能是top，而大跌，则可能是bottom。顺便说，今天的After Bell Quick Summary，提到ChiOsc too high，因此明天早盘大高开的话，很可能会reversal，介个正好符合60 min cycle top的判断。

 

 

1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases)，月亮工作的不错，咱就不要计较介是不是superstitious了哈，结合上面的说法，明天早盘大涨，那就可能盘中reversal，跌到01/29 or 02/01，明天早盘大跌，那就可能盘中reversal涨到01/29 or 02/01。 

 

 

此外还有几个明天重要的理由：

 

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals and 1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily)的棒棒都看着比较bullish，需要明天确认反转。

 

 

VIX的pattern，俺连续讲了n天了，so far correct for VIX only而SPX的反弹却比前三次弱很多，因此明天是SPX证明自己的关键日子。We’ll see。

 

 

3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily)，看着像是Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout，明天如果能follow-through的话，对大盘极为不利，特别是commodity and related stocks。

 

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

h-1

牛熊

safa?

牛熊

还是慢了一点

trueself

1# Cobra


thanks!

牛熊

输给SIFU?

raise3

atrader

thanks

xiaofengfeng

bigtree71

8# atrader


Thanks!!!!!!!!!

Ave

Ding! Thanks!

Fan8an

thanks

LadyLucy

skipjack

thanks

happyface

thanks a lot

ppteam

stats show that last 2 trading days in Jan are very bullish. I think the up has some more room.

fead

thanks!

slcgh

谢谢老大辛勤劳动！！！

terranmn

COS