01/26/2010 大盘回顾 （SPY ST Model Says Sell）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 5 of 8 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH 2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily): *Still looks like VIX trend was reversed to down from up. BEARISH 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU breakdown below strong support area, suspect SPX might follow. 01/22 Market Recap: Climax Buying spiked again. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model *Short if 01/26 low is broken. Might not be a good timing, so be careful. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell 01/21 S Breakeven Sorry, forgot to mention this setup on 01/20. VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. IWM & QQQQ 8.2.9a QQQQ – 2009  - 8.2.9h QQQQ – 2002: Seasonality is bearish until the end of January. EMERGING 1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily): *Double Top or Bearish 1-2-3 Formation? CANADA TSX 1.5.0 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Daily): Double Top, target $15.77. FINANCIALS 3.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): *Pay attention to ChiOsc, may be too low. REITS MATERIALS 3.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Daily): *ChiOsc is very oversold now. OIL & ENERGY 3.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily): *Very oversold plus hollow red bar, could rebound soon. GOLD 3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily): On multiple support, could rebound soon. DOLLAR 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): Could be H&S Bottom in the forming. *Black bar formed, could mean a short-term pullback. BOND 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Could be a Bull Flag. So yield could rise while bond should fall.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION TARGET FOR INDU COULD BE AROUND 9727

 

No update. According to chart 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, the correction target could be around 9727.

 

SHORT-TERM: FED DAY USUALLY WAS AN UP DAY

 

今天由于SPY ST Model出了sell signal，因此上面table里所有buy dip的setup都被取消了，今后sell bounce only。

 

 

0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals，看着像是2天的consolidation，因此方向不明。从Trading角度讲，介个是常用的narrow range bar base and breakout setup，向上突破今天的high则long，向下突破今天的low则short。由于SPY ST Model是sell signal，因此俺only short breakdown，no trade if breakout。

 

 

明天是Fed day，2:15pm以后会有过山车表演，最后结果未知。不过从6.4.3 SPX and FOMC看，明天涨的机会比较大。今天的After Bell Quick Summary也根据6.2.4a SPX and VIX Divergence Watch说明天可能会收绿。

 

 

下面的图来自Bespoke Premium，大意是Fed day涨的几率大，特别是早盘，收盘前通常会sell off。

 

 

其他没啥说的，两个图特别注意一下，no conclustion，wait and see。

 

VIX看着有top的可能，对牛牛有利，此外很多indicator已经非常接近oversold了，因此短期反弹，甚至market bottom了都是有可能的。

 

 

After Bell Quick Summary里提到QQQQ block sell很大，俺不知道是否应该引起重视，再提醒大家一下，因为俺发现很多童鞋是不看After Bell Quick Summary的。

 

 

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LadyLucy

happyface

板凳

牛熊

凳子

h-1

gear

Thanks

tortose

First page

brcm

老蛇， 从你1/20贴的seasonality讲，明天是只有30%的几率收绿哦。。。。

stockgirl

First page!

acoust

First page!

harley

harley

harley

darren168

Thanks

registered

yaobooyao

今天看报告看得晕车鸟，脑裂鸟。。。

这几天不做鸟。。

Alchemist

fu2008

impresario100

trender

thanks