Intel ER

AGA7d

Obviously a big surprise for many - but the question is - can Intel keep surprising throughout the year?

Seems like the game is clear here - Intel has kept its ASP relatively steady while cutting costs. So the margin is much higher than predicted. But there is a big problem now, as we already know, the Moore's law is approaching a dead end (so no need to spend so much on R&D). There are not many tricks for Intel to play to keep the upgrading game going. Without upgrading, how long can Intel maintain its sales? PCs are quite reliable now - I have two old computers (6-8 years old) which still work. If the sales turn out to be mostly replacing (dead ones), not upgrading in the future, what will be the percentage drop in shipments? I see the ER surprise as a light just before dawn - not gonna last.

The strong sales of PCs/Netbooks actually had a lot to do with the steady-down prices, which is largely due to the falling component price and less designing/assembling cost. On that end, there is not much juice left to be squeezed. So I definitely see a great chance of sudden decrease of shipments later - as early as in Q3 or Q4 2010.

Intel is hopeful that the business can resume its upgrading cycle, but without obvious pick-up of the economy (consumer spending will remain weak), it is more a wish than hope.

Go short if Intel goes much higher.

Ave

1# AGA7d

As long as Microsoft keeps update Windows, which is the main way for them to get money, you have to buy new PCs. The reason is simple, you current hardware can not keep up with the software, unless you are OK to be totally out of date. Also, I see opportunities for the high end processors. Man, when I surf internet, my PC is fast enough. When I run simulations at work, I wish I have a server 10 times faster. I am sure, when Intel give me the 10 times faster CPU, the simulations that time will require another 10 times jump... Why I have wait several hours just to calculate one inductor?!

coexist

ddd

The consolidation of notebook, cell phone, and e-reader is coming. The new CPU may not have to fight so hard on mips, but will have to fight on the power consumption, wireless integration and graphics.

There is plenty of room for improvements and developments.

李隆基

不用惊奇，看看台湾的那些代工NB的上市公司的业绩就可以知道。

revolver

2# Ave

I believe you have heard about GRID and cloud computing. Both make more efficient usage of IT resources via distributed computing and reduce the needs of purchasing high-end hardware/software.

AGA7d

The consolidation of notebook, cell phone, and e-reader is coming. The new CPU may not have to fight so hard on mips, but will have to fight on the power consumption, wireless integration and graphics ...
ddd 发表于 2010-1-15 01:04

Well, integration is the hottest technology right now - but is it for PCs or notebooks? Also, can Intel be the mono/duopoly like in the CPU sector? MRVL/Maxim/Broadcom would have a say. With falling PC/netbook shipments in the coming years, how can Intel make up the slack?

AGA7d

1# AGA7d

As long as Microsoft keeps update Windows, which is the main way for them to get money, you have to buy new PCs. The reason is simple, you current hardware can not keep up with the softw ...
Ave 发表于 2010-1-15 00:19

It is a very poor argument - Win7 is here - but how many have to upgrade to it - I mean, buy a new license for the old computer? People use it only because it comes from the new one which is the only choice (well, except for netbooks). If you hear the story of Office 2007 in business sector, you will know IT managers now are more careful in 'upgrading'. The key, of course, is that XP is a very good OS - like Office 2003 as a very good suite. On the hardware side - I believe many biz will stay on P4 class for a long time until the old ones die.

Ave

2# Ave

I believe you have heard about GRID and cloud computing. Both make more efficient usage of IT resources via distributed computing and reduce the needs of purchasing high-end hardware/softw ...
revolver 发表于 2010-1-15 04:11

The problem is to utilize the distributed computing is that you have to buy much more licenses. At least for now, you have to get each license for each computer/server for ADS. That's way more expensive than buying high end hardware.

Ave

It is a very poor argument - Win7 is here - but how many have to upgrade to it - I mean, buy a new license for the old computer? People use it only because it comes from the new one which is the o ...
AGA7d 发表于 2010-1-15 06:49

Come back after two years, and see if your argument is still true... If you think it will be true, short MSFT from now...

AGA7d

Looks like ppl are not blinded by the ER - intc down in pre-market.