01/14/2010 大盘回顾 （NATV/NYTV Rose Even Higher）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in buy mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are neutral

BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly):  H&S Bottom text book target is 1246. BEARISH 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Top in a month? 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped? 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: Multiple resistances and breadth very overbought. 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps.  0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC and CPCE MA10 are too low. 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC and CPCE MA5 are too low. 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: *Topped? 01/14 Market Recap: *II and AAII survey show extremely high bull to bear ratio. CONCLUSION Signals presented above are enough to justify a short selling. For aggressive traders only. Shorted on 01/11. Close position at your own will.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE.  Take profit whenever you see appropriate. ST Model 12/21 L 12/31 Low   Reversal Bar       NYMO Sell

ETF WATCH COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. IWM & QQQQ 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) : Breakout but STO is too high may pullback soon. 8.2.9a QQQQ – 2009  - 8.2.9h QQQQ – 2002: Seasonality is bearish until the end of January. EMERGING 1.4.2 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM 30 min): Double Top, target 41.77. FINANCIALS 3.5.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): *Could be a Bull Flag in the forming. REITS OIL & ENERGY 3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min): *Symmetrical Triangle, the price could drop more. GOLD DOLLAR 3.1.0 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): Hollow red bar plus MA50 support, could rebound. BOND 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Could be a Bull Flag. So yield could rise while bond should fall.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT HEADWIND AHEAD

 

No update, watch 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly) for overhead target/resistance and 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm for overbought breadth signals.

 

SHORT-TERM: NATV TO NYTV RATIO ROSE EVEN HIGHER

 

还是老问题，CPC and CPCE are extremely low （见上面的table）and www.sentimentrader.com has too many indicators at bearish extremes，因此还是觉得益逢高减仓。

 

 

2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume，moved even higher，表示people对high beta stocks孜孜不倦的追求，too bullish，因此通常是顶部的特征。顺便看看再下面的Rydex trader的情况，感受一下Nasdaq受欢迎的程度。Anyway，I'm not calling a top，只是小心没大错啦。

 

 

 

最新的II and AAII Bull Ratio看一下，也比较extreme。

 

 

 

 

INTERESTING CHARTS:

 

有兴趣地看一下，俺不知道251 / 346 = 73%的outflow都是block sell是否意味着IWM明天bearish?

 

 

1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases)，相信月亮的，自己看吧。

 

朱坚强

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朱坚强

朱坚强

朱坚强

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vivian7899

wuyongma

1# Cobra


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X中国陆军

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X中国陆军

wai-po

1# Cobra


谢，

amd2k

报告出的真早

philles

MtlJaysFan

summer123

Cobra

报告出的真早
amd2k 发表于 2010-1-14 21:05

那是，最近都是先写报告，后吃晚饭的哈，至少提前1小时啊。

zeru001

Thanks!

terranmn