01/08/2009 大盘回顾 （Headwind）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT – Click links to see chart or visit my public chart list. Long-term Up     Intermediate Up Neutral 3.0.0 TNX: Top in a month? 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped? 12/31 Recap: II and AAII survey both show extremely low number of bears. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: *Multiple resistances and breadth are very overbought. Short-term Up Neutral 1.0.2 SPY: 15 unfilled gaps. 01/04 Recap: Too many bearish extremes. 0.0.3 SPX: *CPC and CPCE MA10 are too low. 0.0.1 Top/Bottom Watch: NYDNV is too low.  0.0.5 QQQQ: *Black bar, the 1st prophecy fulfilled, so perhaps top is close? 0.0.9 Put Call Ratio: *too extreme, top could be very close.

CONCLUSION & TRADE Signals presented in the short-term comment area are enough to justify a short selling. Waiting for a Bearish Reversal Bar to short.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE.  Take profit whenever you see appropriate. ST Model 12/21 L 12/31 Low *Added 0.0.4 SPY Mechanical Trading Model into my public chart list so that you can get some visual feelings about this trading model. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     VIX ENV

WATCH LIST COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. IWM & QQQQ 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) : *Breakout but STO is too high may have pullback in a week or two. EMERGING 1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily): Big red bar means more downside ahead. FINANCIALS 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): The breakout looks good, next target 15.70. REITS 3.6.0 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): On multiple support, could rebound.  3.6.1 Real Estate iShares (IYR 30 min): Bullish 1-2-3 formation breakout, target 47.09. OIL & ENERGY 3.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily): *Breakout then consolidation so could be more push up ahead. GOLD DOLLAR 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): Could be a Bull Flag in the forming. BOND 4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): *STO too low. 3.0.1 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily): *Hammer plus channel support. *Bond could rebound, but overall it’s in a downtrend.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: OVERBOUGHT BREADTH PLUS LONG TERM RESISTEANCES, EXPECT HEADWIND AHEAD

 

早先报告里提到的存在于4.0.2 NYSE Advance-Decline Issues and 4.0.3 Primary and Secondary Indices Divergence Watch的negative divergence都得到了修正。前期弱势版块， 3.5.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily)，3.4.2 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Daily) and 3.6.0 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily) (see home builder below)，本周又都表现不俗，因此介段时间的rally应该是挑不出啥毛病来了。俺目前唯一担心的就是short-term bearish extremes太多，因此pullback是迟早的事情，问题是幅度有多大？

 

4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)，maintain 1150ish as target。周五正好停在Fib 61.8%，1145上，下一个目标是Wave派所谓的A = C，1159。如果介里都破了的话，那再往下就是1200ish。

 

 

考虑到short-term bearish extremes太多(see table above)，加上chart 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm上的long term resistance，此外上面的breadth signals  are way too overbought，因此俺认为1150ish不会那么一下就冲过的。

 

 

其他没啥变化，trend table里的所有warning信号变化不大，因此依然有效，就不一一列图了。特别要注意，3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield，Bull Flag的样子，因此yield看着还要上升，按介个趋势发展下去，确实很大可能market在一个月内会见顶。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: EXTREME PUT CALL RATIO GIVES ANOTHER TOP SIGNAL

 

0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch，After Bell Quick Summary里提过，现在看看数据正确后的图，俺觉得short-term top应该just a few days away。

 

 

周一，as mentioned in the After Bell Quick Summary，涨的可能性确实很大。下面是最近所有周一的统计(Courtesy of www.bespokepremium.com)，可以看到，如果避开周一的话，plus那么多bearish extremes (see table above)，plus上面分析的1150ish阻力区，因此如果能有个Bearish Reversal Day(Open high then close in red or at least close < Open)的话，熊熊还是可以bet一下luck的，当然for aggressive traders only。

 

 

INTERESTING CHARTS:

 

6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch，GLD黑棒棒，又是说UUP周一要反弹？

 

windy

萨法！

windy

ha! it is real. Shafa!

dommy

ding

soulvirus

喏

tenteddies

开小差

thx ding

vivian7899

开小差

thx, ding

ut1984

xnz

90ufo

thanks!!!
1st page.

flash

1at page

LLN

Diver

班长，TNX与TLT是什么关系？TNX涨的话，TLT该跌还是该涨？谢谢！

1# Cobra

Jeff

Thanks!

Diver

班长，俺觉得在1月20日之前应该不会跌，因为要让OBAMA执政一周年庆好看！

。。。
SHORT-TERM: EXTREME PUT CALL RATIO GIVES ANOTHER TOP SIGNAL
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0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch，After Bell Quick Summary里提过，现在看看数据正确后的图，俺觉得short-term top应该just a few days away。

3.0.0 TNX: Top in a month? 8.1.0 No ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-1-9 22:36

neo

1st page?

xiaoxiaozhang

haha, still first page!

fead

ding!