01/08/2010 白天灌水

Cobra

小低开，在昨天的range里，因此介个空会补，而且根据一般job report day的规律，最后还会涨，因为job data不好，说明可以继续保持低利率，所以现在欧元大涨，不过俺没看Yield跌多少，Yield Yield Yield，介个其实才是牛牛的软肋，其他都不是问题，只要Yield不高，Fed就可以狂印钱，那任何坏消息都是好消息。

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls

The current Bloomberg estimate for the Nonfarm Payroll number is exactly flat - no gain or loss.  The highest estimate is for a gain of +85K while the lowest is a loss of -100K.  That spread is the widest in the past four months.

Market environments are always changing - sometimes a very positive NFP number is taken as good news (as a sign of a recovering economy) and sometimes it's taken as bad news (as a sign that the Fed will hike rates and make borrowing more expensive).

Lately, positive surprises have been taken as good news, and negative surprises as bad news.  Historically, the S&P 500 gaps up nearly 80% of the time on a good number, and that includes 15 out of the last 16 instances.  On a bad surprise, though, it has gapped up only 43% of the time, and the last 4 were gaps down.

Like we discuss often, however, the initial reaction is not the best guide to future performance.  On those days when the NFP surprised to the upside and the S&P gapped up (since 2000), then on 6 of the last 8 occurrences the S&P closed below its opening price, and since 2000 it showed a positive return over the next three days only 27% of the time.

When there was a negative number and a gap down, the contra-reaction wasn't as consistent (the S&P was up three days later 53% of the time), although on 6 of the last 8 occurrences the S&P closed above its opening price.

Bottom line, the market will do what the market's going to do based on current sentiment.  Historically, a positive surprise should lead to a gap up open...but the odds of that price being sustained over the next few days is very small, especially considering the current state of our sentiment indicators.  If we get a negative surprise, the market may actually take that as a positive (more time for the Fed to leave rates at 0%), so that will be a bigger wild card.

azure4068

沙发！！！上次抢到沙发，结果跌的不堪入目，希望这次不会

源济

板凳！

想发

shafa! Morning cobra!

Shafufu

Good morning.

xz214

temujin

thanks

Cobra

Nonfarm Payrolls

The current Bloomberg estimate for the Nonfarm Payroll number is exactly flat - no gain or loss.  The highest estimate is for a gain of +85K while the lowest is a loss of -100K.  That spread is the widest in the past four months.

Market environments are always changing - sometimes a very positive NFP number is taken as good news (as a sign of a recovering economy) and sometimes it's taken as bad news (as a sign that the Fed will hike rates and make borrowing more expensive).

Lately, positive surprises have been taken as good news, and negative surprises as bad news.  Historically, the S&P 500 gaps up nearly 80% of the time on a good number, and that includes 15 out of the last 16 instances.  On a bad surprise, though, it has gapped up only 43% of the time, and the last 4 were gaps down.

Like we discuss often, however, the initial reaction is not the best guide to future performance.  On those days when the NFP surprised to the upside and the S&P gapped up (since 2000), then on 6 of the last 8 occurrences the S&P closed below its opening price, and since 2000 it showed a positive return over the next three days only 27% of the time.

When there was a negative number and a gap down, the contra-reaction wasn't as consistent (the S&P was up three days later 53% of the time), although on 6 of the last 8 occurrences the S&P closed above its opening price.

Bottom line, the market will do what the market's going to do based on current sentiment.  Historically, a positive surprise should lead to a gap up open...but the odds of that price being sustained over the next few days is very small, especially considering the current state of our sentiment indicators.  If we get a negative surprise, the market may actually take that as a positive (more time for the Fed to leave rates at 0%), so that will be a bigger wild card.

lite1067

小低开，在昨天的range里，因此介个空会补，而且根据一般job report day的规律，最后还会涨，因为job data不好，说明可以继续保持低利率，所以现在欧元大涨，不过俺没看Yield跌多少，Yield Yield Yield，介个其实才是 ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-1-8 10:00

on-the-run treasuries:
2yr  yield +6.4bp
3yr           +6.8
10yr        +4
30yr        +2

happyface

morning all

flash

good morning

我是谁

buddha

morning

90ufo

on-the-run treasuries:
2yr  yield +6.4bp
3yr           +6.8
10yr        +4
30yr        +2
lite1067 发表于 2010-1-8 09:05

how come I hear on bloomberg:  treasury price up, yield down

TNX right now: 37.79 -0.41.

target1

Thank you, Cobra!

90ufo

Cold wave hit florida: orange juice future 再次涨停. WOW.

Seawave

图解分赏一个用 fib 50%的方法。

whzdf

jannychai

morning.

weigoodone01