01/04/2010 大盘回顾 （Breakout Confirmed but Too Many Short-term Warnings）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT – Click links to see chart or visit my public chart list. Long-term Up     Intermediate Up Neutral 3.0.0 TNX: Top in a month? 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped? 12/31 Recap: Climax Buying spiked, could be Topped. 12/31 Recap: II and AAII survey both show extremely low number of bears. Short-term *Up Neutral 1.0.2 SPY: *15 unfilled gaps. 01/04 Recap: *Too many bearish extremes. 0.0.3 SPX: *CPC MA10 is too high. 0.0.6 Nasdaq 100: *NADNV is too low. 1.1.0 Nasdaq: *NDXA50R is too high.

CONCLUSION & TRADE Signals presented in the short-term comment area are enough to justify a short selling. Shorted 12/28 on SPY daily black bar. *Covered most of the short positions flat but still hold a small part waiting for a Bearish Reversal Bar to short more.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE.  Take profit whenever you see appropriate. ST Model 12/21 L   Breakeven Reversal Bar      Stopped out long position on 12/31 with gain. NYMO Sell     VIX ENV

WATCH LIST COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. RUSSELL 2000 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) : Bearish reversal bar plus multi-resistances, price could drop. EMERGING 1.4.1 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Daily): *Breakout, need follow-through though. FINANCIALS 3.5.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Could be a bearish Roof pattern in the forming. 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Under long term resistance with MACD sell signal. *Condition improved today, could be a breakout of the Roof pattern on the upside, need see for more confirmation. REITS   OIL & ENERGY 3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min): *Could be a Bearish Rising Wedge in the forming.  GOLD   DOLLAR 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): *Hollow red bar could mean a rebound.  BOND

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BREAKOUT COULD BE CONFIRMED

 

今天的daily图看着比较bullish，典型的breakout then pullback pattern，so probably will be up more。

 

 

下面可能的target见4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)，Fib confluence area plus long term trend line，大约是1150ish。

 

 

The bottom line，no question，intermediate-term is up，目前俺比较担心的还是short-term有太多的bearish sign，其数目以及extreme的程度，超过了2009 March and July的两次push。How the market is going to handle these bearish signals are remained to be seen。

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD UP MORE BUT BEWARE OF LARGE NUMBER OF BEARISH SIGNALS

 

www.sentimentrader.com又是total 39% of all its indicators are at bearish extremes。上两次俺提介个是12/14/2009 Market Recap and 12/23/2009 Market Recap。

 

 

0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals，CPC MA10 too  high。

 

 

0.0.6 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals，NADNV（Nasdaq down volume）too low。

 

 

1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily)，NDXA50R （Nasdaq 100 number of stocks above MA50）too high。

 

 

The bottom line，以上的signal，并不说明马上会跌，不过看起来也没有多大upside room了。Let’s see。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

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