Breaking Out

Diffusion

Cobra

Really a good news, isn't it?

janez

Really a good news, isn't it?
Cobra 发表于 2009-12-22 18:02

No. Really bad for us bears.

Cobra

No. Really bad for us bears.
janez 发表于 2009-12-22 18:06

I don't think that way.

Diffusion

Really a good news, isn't it?
Cobra 发表于 2009-12-22 18:02

这么多indicator都break out了，横看竖看都只有一种解释，经济复苏，游资回流，偏好风险 ...

But to say it's good news or bad news really depends on who the audience is.  

Diffusion

这么多indicator都break out了，横看竖看都只有一种解释，经济复苏，游资回流，偏好风险 ...

But to say it's good news or bad news really depends on who the audience is.  
Diffusion 发表于 2009-12-22 18:08

By audience I mean at least four group of traders:
1. Bulls
2. Bears
3. Bulls believe conspiracy theory
4. Bears believe conspiracy theory

新低手

头1次往往不成功，几次三番晃荡，必成功

padme

这么多indicator都break out了，横看竖看都只有一种解释，经济复苏，游资回流，偏好风险 ...

But to say it's good news or bad news really depends on who the audience is.  
Diffusion 发表于 2009-12-22 18:08

你给的这些都是leading indicators还是lagging indicators？ 我昨天看了CM帖的COMPQ的图，吓得差点儿不敢short了。不过再看了看INDU和SPX的图，今天就又放心开了short仓位。毕竟，我做的是SPX, 而INDU在各大指数里是leading market. 所以看这哥俩没精打采的样子，呵呵。

Diffusion

I don't think that way.
Cobra 发表于 2009-12-22 18:07

Any reason?

Diffusion

头1次往往不成功，几次三番晃荡，必成功
新低手 发表于 2009-12-22 18:15

$NYA50R那个我等了好久了。

Diffusion

你给的这些都是leading indicators还是lagging indicators？ 我昨天看了CM帖的COMPQ的图，吓得差点儿不敢short了。不过再看了看INDU和SPX的图，今天就又放心开了short仓位。毕竟，我做的是SPX, 而INDU在各大指数 ...
padme 发表于 2009-12-22 18:15

这很难说，具体leading / lagging要看市场内在联系，有时候leading，有时候lagging。

但是如果按照“经济复苏，游资回流，偏好风险”来理解，都是leading indicators。

Cobra

Any reason?
Diffusion 发表于 2009-12-22 18:16

You mixed bad news with good news.

USD, TNX and VIX are not completely good news for bulls.

padme

这很难说，具体leading / lagging要看市场内在联系，有时候leading，有时候lagging。

但是如果按照“经济复苏，游资回流，偏好风险”来理解，都是leading indicators。
Diffusion 发表于 2009-12-22 18:19

“经济复苏，游资回流，偏好风险”这是我留给一两年之后SPX 1500以上时候的现象啊。现在就发生，不是好现象。

CoolMax

你给的这些都是leading indicators还是lagging indicators？ 我昨天看了CM帖的COMPQ的图，吓得差点儿不敢short了。不过再看了看INDU和SPX的图，今天就又放心开了short仓位。毕竟，我做的是SPX, 而INDU在各大指数 ...
padme 发表于 2009-12-22 06:15 PM

去看看WLSH吧！

Diffusion

You mixed bad news with good news.

USD, TNX and VIX are not completely good news for bulls.
Cobra 发表于 2009-12-22 18:20

如果按照“经济复苏，游资回流，偏好风险”这个主题来理解，就都是好消息了。对不对最后还是要看市场怎么走了。

Diffusion

“经济复苏，游资回流，偏好风险”这是我留给一两年之后SPX 1500以上时候的现象啊。现在就发生，不是好现象。
padme 发表于 2009-12-22 18:22

Stock market is all about collective expectation, it's a "voting machine" in short term according to Graham.

如果你还记得以前我贴过的sector rotation，financial sector rally happens at the end of contraction, but not the beginning of expansion.

CoolMax

RUT新高，绝对是好消息。

Cobra

如果按照“经济复苏，游资回流，偏好风险”这个主题来理解，就都是好消息了。对不对最后还是要看市场怎么走了。
Diffusion 发表于 2009-12-22 18:24

Also NYA50R is not a breakout, it's a huge negative divergence. 当然你可以说who cares negative divergence。

weigoodone01

Diffusion

Also NYA50R is not a breakout, it's a huge negative divergence. 当然你可以说who cares negative divergence。
Cobra 发表于 2009-12-22 18:29

Negative divergence还是要注意的。不过我的trading time frame比较短，huge divergence就管不了了。如果只看最近20天，是不是又成了positive divergence了？