12/16/2009 大盘回顾 （Still not many newsletter bears）

Cobra

Summary:

Despite very bullish seasonality, the market may not be able to go up much because there're too few bears.

Expect short-term pullback soon.

	TREND	MOMENTUM	EMOTION	COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up		Disbelieve
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	Up	Neutral
SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
ST Model	12/10 L		Breakeven
Reversal Bar	12/10 L		Breakeven
NYMO Sell
VIX ENV

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH SEASONALITY BUT MARKET MAY NOT UP HUGE

 

没说的，祥见12/14/2009 Market Recap，下面四周统计上讲very bullish。不过，今天的Investor's Intelligence Sentiment Survey还是很少bear。大家记得周末俺quote的http://www.bespokepremium.com/统计吧，介么少的bear意味着未来的涨幅不大，所以don't hope too much。

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK SOON

 

短期看跌的理由已经陆陆续续讲了，介里综合一下。

 

1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，QQQQ黑棒棒，意味着明天低开（不一定收红），此外离short-term top不远。

 

Rydex Bull/Bear RSI Spread，就是说买Rydex牛fund和熊fund的差值，昨天的数据有了戏剧性的变化，本来看bottom的，一下子看来离top不远了。今天的数据必须半夜才知道，如果有变化，比如又是说bottom的话，俺明早会通知大家，for now，let's just believe a top is very close。

 

Longest streaks without -1000 tick?，俺blog贴了，HT可能还有很多银不知道，所以介里再贴一下。没有tick -1000的日子，suppose是大涨特涨的，但是介么长时间了，大盘却went nowhere，俺认为是有大的卖单在上面不急不忙的卖，所以大盘冲不上去，但是卖单也不急，所以才没有-1000的tick。介个不一定熊，关键是大卖单出货的理由是啥，准备发奖金，还是protect stops，差别很大哈。关于介个，俺已经让俺小蜜打电话去问狗盛了，可能过几天就知道答案了。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

happyface

sofa

hnhy

tianee

ding

raise3

rabishh

hohohoho

rabishh

5 fl, now 6

pig2006

1st page.Thanks!

rabishh

how about the impact of C secondary offers

rosyrosy

early today!

Diver

atrader

thanks

soulvirus

michaelzhang

usamonkey

13# soulvirus

dara

关于介个，俺已经让俺小蜜打电话去问狗盛了，可能过几天就知道答案

tenteddies

bryanlie

Cobra

how about the impact of C secondary offers
rabishh 发表于 2009-12-16 19:47

No idea。说实话，俺是一直看不懂，介secondary offers，就是冲淡你手中的股票啊，居然一直都当好消息来解释，太不可思议了。弄得大家现在都习惯了，以为secondary offers是好消息，NND。介些大的金融机构应该要调查调查，是否有自己哄抬自己股票的嫌疑，介是明目张胆的骗钱啊。将来main street的人发现上当受骗，不是现在GS的主管都要带枪嘛，俺靠，介在WS工作的银，可有生命危险啊。

Jeff

thanks