Nov. Job report appeared to be fabricated

AGA7d

http://finance.yahoo.com/techtic ... :-Nov.-Jobs-Report-

The November report was an "outlier" and "almost looked fabricated," according to Shedlock, an investment advisor at SitkaPacific Capital Management

Looking beyond the November jobs data, Shedlock says the odds of the unemployment rate coming down anytime soon are remote.

Even based on generous assumptions of 150,000 new jobs per month, no double-dip recession and a declining participation rate as Baby Boomers retire, "the best I can do is suggest the unemployment rate will be over 10% all the way through 2015 and never dip below 8% all the way out through the end of 2020," Mish says. (You can see the detailed analysis here on Mish's blog and find a downloadable spreadsheet to make your own assumptions and predictions here.)

As confident as he is about the grim outlook for jobs, Shedlock was very reticent to make market predictions in the accompanying video, taped Friday evening at Minyanville's annual Holiday Festivus in New York City.

"I think the best trade [of 2010] is for those that are nimble and able to roll with the punches whatever they come up with," he said. "I don't think realistically anyone knows what it's going to be."

In a subsequent email, Shedlock was more willing to take a position, as is more typical of the opinionated blogger:

"In the absence of a war outbreak in the Middle East or Pakistan -- and/or Congress going completely insane with more stimulus efforts -- I think oil prices are likely to drop, the dollar will strengthen or at least hold its own, and the best opportunities are likely to be on the short side," he writes. "2010 is highly likely to retrace most if not all of the ‘reflation' efforts of 2009. If things play out as I suspect, 2010 will be the year of the great retrace as the economic recovery disappoints."

nomisy

Seems nobody posted this article. just FYR

Jobs Data Divergence: Who to Believe?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/ ... ence-who-to-believe

...There is a massive discrepancy between the all-sector job losses reported by ADP and the BLS—169,000 versus 11,000. In percentage terms, this could well be the biggest ADP-BLS disagreement ever.

But it gets even more interesting. ADP reports 81,000 jobs lost in the service sector in November, while BLS reports a net gain of 56,000. Meanwhile, the ISM shows non-manufacturing employment still deep in contraction territory, at 41.6 whereas a mere break-even is 50. Who are we supposed to believe?
.....