Holiday sales forecast - 2.9%

AGA7d

Thanks in part to these forecasted cuts in spouse-to-spouse gifting, Beemer is predicting a 2.9% drop in holiday retail sales, compared with a 2.7% drop a year ago. "I know some analysts are predicting positive numbers, but I just don't see it working out as well," he says. Given his track record — Beemer's sales predictions have been accurate within a half of 1% over the past 17 of 18 holiday seasons — the economy shouldn't expect a Christmas gift. "It's a heck of a challenging time," says Mark Israel, president of Hearts on Fire, a high-end jewelry maker, "and we have to respond." Israel says Hearts on Fire will sell more products than usual below the $3,000 price point.

According to Beemer's research, 51.5% of consumers plan to spend less this year, compared with 40.1% who said they'd cut back a year ago. Retailers have been quick to trumpet how their more manageable inventory levels and smaller staffs will help control costs. But such cuts could backfire against them. Over 41% of shoppers, as opposed to 21% in 2008, say they will leave stores that are short-handed or have long lines at the register. If cash-strapped customers already feel a little guilty about shopping to begin with, they'll look for any excuse to head home.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1939807,00.html#ixzz0XsBWFiPt

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Pretty bad number given the YOY comparison is 2008. There will be more store closing next year.

knight2017

when will be the number released and where can you find them, thanks!!

源济

stonehorse

thanks

coexist

netfire

it is pretty bad. but as long as it is better than expected, market is going to go up big. lol

dara

LOL, another trick.

WS predict -2.9%, actual number is +0.3%, so the number is a big beat.

I heard from the radio some people actually predict a 1~3% increase from last year.

AGA7d

Beemer is just one voice. There are other rosy predictions. I singled it out because of his track record.

"within a half of 1% over the past 17 of 18 holiday seasons" - it is pretty amazingly accurate.

For WS, I think the general view is down a little to up a little.

silverado

all eyes waiting