long term trend line.

knight2017

I was looking around and thought to draw up a long term trend line and i got this



I also made a close up and gives,



The last close up shot probably explains why the correction lots people were expecting is not happening. right now sp500 is right on the long term trend line which is providing a support. so needless to say the longer term resistance line mets the support line next week. my my understanding even if we break up to the up side this is not sustainable b/C Vix is on about to touch the BB and reaching crucial resistance level 20.  with all the divergence and loss  of market breath everywhere, i don't thinking we have that kinda power to make a such powerful break.


I would absolutely Love anyone to point out the problem in my analysis.

Cheers guys

mab

depends on whether you use log or linear chart to draw the trend lines, you got different resistance.

CoolMax

On my chart, this trendline is at 1145 right now.

So it is still far to be a major resistance before 1121 which is Fibo 50%

knight2017

On my chart, this trendline is at 1145 right now.

So it is still far to be a major resistance before 1121 which is Fibo 50%

30363
CoolMax 发表于 2009-11-24 19:18

I am really more or less concerned about the supporting trend line, i think the line is carrying the index at the moment. if it is not broken, bouncing off the line means much steeper rally than we had so hard. i don't think thats really possible. as far as the resistance goes, we can use the intersection of 1120 and the supporting trend line which is still due to occur next week I believe ( I tried to align the inflecting points as best as i can but since the this is long term trend line there bound to be errors).

CoolMax

I am really more or less concerned about the supporting trend line, i think the line is carrying the index at the moment. if it is not broken, bouncing off the line means much steeper rally than ...
knight2017 发表于 2009-11-24 07:31 PM

Look at yellow trendline, it is not at the place you thought.

To draw this type of trendline, you need the chart tools can snap to bar lows or highs.

knight2017

Look at yellow trendline, it is not at the place you thought.

To draw this type of trendline, you need the chart tools can snap to bar lows or highs.

30381
CoolMax 发表于 2009-11-24 19:36

Yeah I now know the problem i used linear instead of log scale. to draw the chart.

so CM   Do you mind tell me the difference between the two.

CoolMax

Yeah I now know the problem i used linear instead of log scale. to draw the chart.

so CM   Do you mind tell me the difference between the two.
knight2017 发表于 2009-11-24 07:49 PM

我个人的看法，短期内，两者区别不大。
长期的话，如果价格变动比较大。Log scale更好一些。因为反映的是变化率，不是绝对值。
在底部666，赚6.66块，就是赚了1%，这目前的价位，6.66块，只赚大约了0.5%。

knight2017

thanks so much, CM，  名不虚传。

牛熊

czm

Let's see 1145, 1150 or 1200... Gut feeling, it'll be crazier/bigger than the charts.

atrader

看久了，觉得LONG TERM TREND LINE 可能阻挡不了目前得升势。
但是，一般地，大跌是不要理由的。先跌后园理由。
今天就不再看了。

大泡泡

O8 said it will go 1300 by the year end. you better believe. Everything else is not important.

sexydaytrader

dinggggg

MTLYBZB

acoust

ut1984

coexist

。。。thanks

yifan

ＴＨＡＮＫ　ＹＯＵ！

Braveheart