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If you treat trading as hobby, better quit now.
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I believe that most people who try trading will not have careers as traders. There are many factors that go into it but the reality is that the large majority of people who try trading ultimately cannot make a living from it long term. Unfortunately, many people need to try it for months to years before they reach that conclusion. There are so many factors involved that it takes a long time for you to decide that you have sufficiently explored it and are then able to conclude that you cannot make a living from it.
Do I know traders who are making a living? Yes. How much can a reasonably good trader make? If a trader becomes very consistent, averaging 2 pts a day, and trades a modest volume, like 5 contracts, that is about $100,000 a year. If you make 10 points a day, which very few traders can do, even just trading 3 contracts is $300,000/year. A trader should set a reasonable goal for points and try to make it every day. Is 2 points a day possible? Yes. Is 4 points? Yes, but you have to be very disciplined and trade the first hour well. It is a good sign if you find yourself disappointed after netting 6 points on a day. Is 20 points possible? I doubt there are very many traders who are averaging that much because it simply requires such intensity, focus, and accuracy that it would be very hard to do every day of the year.
Larger volume requires more than just capital, because there is always emotion involved. I have one friend who trades 24 contracts and one day about 10 years ago, I watched him trade live via computer (we quickly typed our trades back and forth to each other) and he made 14 points and said that it was an average day for him. And he is in his seventies. Do the math...that is 7 figures a year. I have other friends who have told me that they make doctor salaries. I had another friend who was trading 100 lots in the Eminis successfully and he only traded the first hour or so because he said that he analyzed his results and found that 90% of his profit was in the first hour and he didn't want to wear himself out before beginning the next day.
A long time ago I asked a very well known trader what the trader’s volume was and I received a rude answer. I have asked a couple other successful traders years ago and they, too, were annoyed. And I was annoyed by their annoyance! Why not help me out and give me an idea of where the road might take me? For me, I now find that I don’t like to discuss income either. I will say, though, that you might have noticed that I emphasize trades with the potential to make 4 points of profit and am less interested in 1 point scalps. That is because I decided that if I am going to get to institutional size volume, I should be trading like an institution and taking institutional setups and avoiding anything else. Will I ever get there? I don’t know but I hope so. I do know that some traders continue to increase their volume even after many years of successful trading. I know others who plateau and stay in their comfort zone forever, even though they have the skill to multiply their income several fold.
Will I someday trade live in front of an audience, showing my exact trades and profit as the day unfolds? I can’t imagine it because I am simply too much of a trading recluse and that would make me feel too exposed, self-conscious, and uncomfortable, and I know myself well enough to believe that it would interfere with my trading. Also, I would feel pressure to perform and to not have dips in my performance, and that would be a distraction. I don’t want to report one income and then go into a few months of making less and feeling like I misled people. I also wondered about entering a trading competition but I feel that it would be more to win praise and quiet doubters, and that is not sufficient justification for me. I trade for myself and do it best when I ignore what other people think about me or the market. I just want to quietly trade and take my bumps as they come and not worry about how they might affect someone else. And someday, I hope to be a one person, reclusive institution. |
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