TOP LINE NUMBERS NOT BAD

Diffusion

With everyone worried about the top line revenue numbers this earnings season, we've been tracking this data closely.  As shown below, 59% of US companies have beaten revenue estimates this quarter, which is the highest reading over the last 5 earnings seasons.  While it's not in the 70%-80% range we saw during the last bull market, the direction of the revenue "beat" rate is trending higher, which is a positive for the market.

superxy

Dollar is weak

Diffusion

Dollar is weak
superxy 发表于 2009-11-10 15:43

I forgot the exact number, but I have the impression that 30% revenue of S & P 500 companies are from international market. So weak dollar will continue fuel the their revenue.

trueself

1# Diffusion


thanks!

俺依旧是老观点：worst is behind us, but recovery takes lonnnnnnnnng time

南无阿弥陀佛

dara

Not bad?? Most of the big company rev are down 5%~15%.

CSCO/INTC both 10-15%
IBM/MSFT   dwon 7-8%
JNJ/MCK down
XOM?CVX down huge

The only big name revenue up is Apple, goog is flat.

trueself

I forgot the exact number, but I have the impression that 30% revenue of S & P 500 companies are from international market. So weak dollar will continue fuel the their revenue.
Diffusion 发表于 2009-11-10 16:09

en ,以前没那么关心美刀，现在倒好。。。不得不啊

trueself

Not bad?? Most of the big company rev are down 5%~15%.

CSCO/INTC both 10-15%
IBM/MSFT   dwon 7-8%
JNJ/MCK down
XOM?CVX down huge

The only big name revenue up is Apple, goog is flat.
dara 发表于 2009-11-10 16:14

dara

I remember it very clearly in the previous recovery(2003-2006),

BRCM rev up Quarter Over Quarter for 10+Qs (That is way better than YOY).

I do not see that kind of thing yet.

dara

But then again,

because the base is less in 2009 now and USD keeps dropping,
so it is actually setting up for growth in 2010 for the big guys

coexist

outlook is not bad either

Diffusion

But then again,

because the base is less in 2009 now and USD keeps dropping,
so it is actually setting up for growth in 2010 for the big guys
dara 发表于 2009-11-10 16:23

Yes, this is the point. Between now and Q4 ER release, there is enough time for bulls to dream, and express their opinion with their money.

Diffusion

1# Diffusion


thanks!

俺依旧是老观点：worst is behind us, but recovery takes lonnnnnnnnng time

南无阿弥陀佛
trueself 发表于 2009-11-10 16:14

As said, bulls has enough time to dream about this recovery, till Q4 ER release, when they will face another reality check.

dara

Yes, this is the point. Between now and Q4 ER release, there is enough time for bulls to dream, and express their opinion with their money.
Diffusion 发表于 2009-11-10 16:49

I read the post, you need pay attention to this:
---------------
"the direction of the revenue "beat" rate is trending higher"
---------------

It is the "beat" rate of expect, but NOT revenue growth YOY or whatever.

You give an expectation of Revenue down 15% YOY, then it just down 13% YOY, you call it a "beat", that is what Intc and csco did.

Diffusion

I read the post, you need pay attention to this:
---------------
"the direction of the revenue "beat" rate is trending higher"
---------------

It is the "beat" rate of expect, but NOT revenu ...
dara 发表于 2009-11-10 16:53

Yes. Before Q4 ER release, the market will be driven mostly by expectation, that's why beat rate is important, as it helps to set the expectation for future. It could happen that market crashes big time once Q4 ER is out if the expectation is overextended. But hey, it needs to climb higher before it crashes.

Just my 2c, YMYD as always.

Positive_Theta

As shown below, 59% of US companies have beaten revenue estimates this quarter, w ...

yeah, big deal, it can be 80% if the analysts lower the estimates even more

trueself

As said, bulls has enough time to dream about this recovery, till Q4 ER release, when they will face another reality check.
Diffusion 发表于 2009-11-10 16:52

Yes!俺也是这么想，那之前还是可以牛牛一阵的

globe

stonehorse

thanks

guyuxiao

ok