11/09/2009 大盘回顾 （Bigger up and down swings ahead?）

Cobra

Summary:

Could be bigger and bigger up and down swings ahead, I consider them as part of a slow topping process.

Expect a short-term pullback as early as tomorrow.

	TREND	MOMENTUM	EMOTION	COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up		Disbelieve
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	Up	Neutral
SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
ST Model				Officially in downtrend.
Reversal Bar
NYMO Sell				Stopped out with gains on 11/05.
VIX ENV

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE BIGGER AND BIGGER UP AND DOWN SWINGS AHEAD

 

Market的action，让俺想起July 2007的情形，当时也是这样很大的上下震荡，NYSI not confirming top，Russell 2000 underperform。下面的图是两个阶段的比较。因此俺更倾向于认为大盘是在一个缓慢的做顶过程，可能后面还会有这样持续几天的大幅上下波动。至于波动几次，持续多久，I have no idea，但是如果介个推断正确的话，那，操作上宜buy dip and sell bounce，而不是chase high and sell low。换句话说，对于现在的情况，如果错过了6天前的dip话，介里还是等等比较好。至于做空呢，在没看到reversal day之前，最好也不要动。

 

那么，有没有可能现在是bottom，market from now on will go much much higher呢？6.3.1 Major Accumulation Day Watch，今天是Major Accumulation Day，如果在今后的5天内有另一个Major Accumulation Day的话，plus已经有的NYMO positive divergence，那market will go much much higher。Until then，维持上下震荡slow topping process的看法先。

 

7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change，介个因为有同学问，所以介里提一下，6 vs 6，还是熊熊赢，by definition，介还是个sellable bounce。不过俺对介个rule已经没有信心了，今年工作的不是很好。

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

 

After Bell Quick Summary根据10 day up cycle以及ISEE Equities Only Index的情况，认为可能还有one more push up，不过在介个one more push up之前，先有个pullback的可能大些。理由有二：

 

SPY up 6 days in a row，sell the next day open then cover at the next next day close的统计，见下面的图。Entry date，供参考：3/20/2003, 9/3/2003, 12/2/2003, 4/1/2004, 5/28/2004, 12/16/2004, 7/15/2005, 11/25/2005, 1/11/2006, 10/26/2006, 11/20/2006, 2/7/2007, 4/9/2007, 5/20/2008, 7/24/2008, 10/13/2009。（红色高亮的，表示failed trade。）此外，周五report里说的price up volume down的setup依然有效。

 

6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch，金子整了个黑棒棒，介意味着明天米金会反弹，换句话说，就是大盘可能会pullback。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

lehldk

ding ding

slp

沙发

lehldk

cobra, you are too late, I have to sleep after 2h Waiting

CoolMax

soulvirus

i am late...

ddr

thanks

想发

1st page.

trender

8th floor

yaobooyao

沙发肯定没了。

trader88

Thanks

Alchemist

happyface

thanks

牛熊

First page!:(13):

我是谁

low

thanks！

harley

harley

acoust

First page!

天龙

顶