买点UNG？更好（低）的价格可能在不远的将来。。。

stringzero

$12 看来是一个大阻力位。

With the Natural Gas ETF UNG falling almost 5% before mid-day on Monday, October 26th, let’s take a quick look at the broader picture by seeing the structure and opportunities on the weekly and daily charts.

UNG Weekly:


The weekly chart is showing a lengthy Arc or  “rounded reversal” pattern that continues to drag out into the $10 per share level. Volume has trailed off as price has found a consolidation range between $10 and $15 per share in addition to the positive momentum divergence we see underlying price.

The trend structure clearly is down, and price is underneath all key weekly moving averages, and I would suggest taking a special look at the 20 week EMA, which currently resides at $12.38 per share.  The 20 EMA has contained all price rallies so far like a brick wall. Unless you’re an aggressive trader playing for a trend reversal, I wouldn’t touch UNG long for anything other than a day-trade until price can prove that it can sustain itself above the 20 week EMA for at least a few weeks.



On the daily chart, we see that price was recently unable to sustain a move above the daily 20 and 50 EMAs - which has been the pattern as seen on this chart.  We look at current characteristics of successful and failed patterns to understand the “Character” or “Behavior” of a stock or market.

In this case, buyers can push price slightly above these moving averages, but have never been able to sustain price above them for more than a few days.  As such, any move above the EMAs - particularly when dojis have formed - has been a sell-signal (almost mocking bulls and creating ‘Bull Traps”).

The black lines reflect adaptive trendlines from earlier in 2009. If the prior trend continues, then we will be looking for a price move down to test $9.50 or $9.00 in the next few weeks - provided that the $12.00 level holds as it seems to be doing as resistance. Thus, $12.00 is the line in the sand, and as long as price remains underneath this level, then odds seem to favor lower prices as a factor of the crushing downtrend in place.

by Corey Rosenbloom

ccc

1# stringzero

busywind

thx

abasqoo

今天美股大漲，GDP高過預期，風顯偏好升溫，可惜天然氣庫存數據比上週更加難看，又增加了25億立方公尺，比上個星期公佈的上上週數據增加18億立方公尺還要糟糕。表示使用的需求並無增加，也許可能是民用的需求低，工業用的需求低等所造成的。短期(近月)感覺上漲的力道似乎不太夠，即便經濟數據利多，拉高各類商品和股市，天然氣期貨也只能撐著不跌太多或升不高的尷尬場面。

技術面我就不太行了，但看s大的圖只看出似乎也不樂觀就是了

CoolMax

做反了，我一直强调在12块附近阻击UNG.So far so good.

风信子

Thanks for sharing!