GOOG earning play

牛B家

GS比我算的9.33差很多，这说明TRADING和INVESTMENT方面GS 被 JPM 抢了很多。 但是这个冲10000的牛市是GS 造的。GOOG 冲 600 的 SENTIMENT已经被GS 搞没了。
JPM,INTC都是好ER，SELL OFF MODE
GOOG 已经涨了一些，我个人认为离年底价位还没到位。 但是所有的大BROKERAGE HOUSE都UPGRADE了，ESTIMATE 上来一些，而且GOOG这个Q有106.5M的EXPENSE BUY OUT ONT， 这个就是$0.34/SHARE, 这个可以解读为不好的。而且我认为GOOG Q2Q REV 成长+DOLAR DEVALUE = 6.5%左右。 如果这样最多BEAT 0.1.
如果是这样小幅BEAT，这就不能暴涨，主要是这个ONE TIME EXPENSE在现在的环境解释可能不好，因为谁都知道大市很高。
GOOG的YOUTUBE, ANDROID, EBOOK都是下个Q以后的好事，所以GOOG不可能大跌。
GOOG PRERUN + 大市高点 + SELL OFF sentiment + GS 龙头 出师不利
我认为GOOG 应该 SELL OTM CALL 或者更保守
急跌就可以买

2001ht09

thanks

WildWolf

SELL OTM CALL 太危险，  若看跌，还是买PUT比较保险。小心呀，

牛B家

明天的大市很可能中跌
IBM is extremely stretched
GOOG no big move
GE 跌 pretty sure
BAC 小跌
all leaders are gone, take profit before weekend

dara

明天的大市很可能中跌
IBM is extremely stretched
GOOG no big move
GE 跌 pretty sure
BAC 小跌
all leaders are gone, take profit before weekend
牛B家 发表于 2009-10-15 13:08

think MM will have one last push next week or so.

dara

buy GOOG option on Thursday could not gain money in 90%+ of the time.

In the last 5 or 6 years, I remember only once GOOG up 10%+ after ER.

牛B家

buy GOOG option on Thursday could not gain money in 90%+ of the time.

In the last 5 or 6 years, I remember only once GOOG up 10%+ after ER.
dara 发表于 2009-10-15 13:17

GOOG is crowd trade, it has pre-er run already. now it is a buy on dip instead of chasing, the most important thing is market is overbought and is ripe for taking profit just like other leaders. GS earning quality is very bad

Diver

天天向上

谁知道APPL哪天Earning report？玩earning就该玩apple的，几乎回回都涨。

恐慌小猪

4# 牛B家
明天中跌？

ChuChu888

yaobooyao

谁知道APPL哪天Earning report？玩earning就该玩apple的，几乎回回都涨。
天天向上 发表于 2009-10-15 17:44

下周一就到苹果了。

xz214

guyuxiao

selling OTM option is too risky, bad risk/reward ratio

acura

palm

busywind

SF