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First, the dominant pattern seems to be a lengthy “Measured Move” or an “AB=CD” pattern (also known as a type of “Bull Flag” as labeled).
If this measured move is indeed dominant, then the price projection target appears to be the $50 to $52 level. There is prior resistance (not shown) from the October 2008 period at the $50 level as well, so this will be a key target to watch should price continue to rise to this level.
We are seeing a distinct and obvious negative volume divergence in JP Morgan which has lasted from the lows of March to present… this serves as a glaring “non-confirmation” of the rally (in that volume trailed off as prices continued to rise).
The momentum oscillator has also been forming a lengthy divergence as well as a shorter term “triple swing” negative momentum divergence.
Price is also forming a spike (which could be a doji) outside the upper Bollinger Band which is a sign of over-extension and is seen as a short-term sell (pullback) signal.
Stepping back to basic technical analysis, just like Intel, the trend structure and moving average structure is bullish, and will remain that way as long as price is above the 20 day EMA.
Like in the overall market in general, we have the battle of intermediate/advanced level technical analysis (divergences, overextensions - bearish) vs simple/basic TA in terms of trend structure (bullish).
As such, caution is warranted and a retracement is favored as the short-term expectation.
It’s often a good idea to look “inside the market” to key movers like JP Morgan for clues on how the broader market is likely to move. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-10-15 12:23 AM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2009-10-15 12:27 AM
