10/14/2009 大盘回顾 （Breakout!）

Cobra

Summary:

Fib confluences area could be the SPX intermediate-term target. Still worried about those so many unfilled gaps though.

Hollow red bar on VIX daily chart could mean a pullback tomorrow.

	TREND	MOMENTUM	EMOTION	COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up		Disbelieve
Intermediate	*Up	Neutral	No argue
Short-term	Up	Neutral	Yes!
SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
ST Model I	10/14 L	*Buy intraday	*10/06 Low
ST Model II				Stopped out short flat on 10/08.  No position held now.
VIX ENV	10/06 L		10/13 Low
Reversal Bar	10/05 L	*Adjust stop loss	10/13 Low
Up 3 days in a row while volume down 3 days in a row	10/12 S		Hold 3 days	61% winning rate since 2002.   I covered intraday flat on 10/13.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: FIB CONFLUENCES AREA COULD BE THE TARGET

 

Breakout to new high，并且昨天提的decisive breakout的条件都符合了，除了unfilled gap多了点以外，似乎也挑不出啥毛病了。1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly)，标示了最有可能的一些目标供参考。

 

目前俺最担心的还是unfilled gap太多的问题，这是从没有过的事情。1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily)，9个high to low的空，太多了。

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A PULLBACK TOMORROW

 

明天呢，一般规律，consolidation的可能性比较大。由于After Bell Quick Summary里的几个理由，加上2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)的空心红棒棒，因此看起来明天pullback的可能还是比较大的。

 

3.1.2 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min)，米金的positive divergence比较明显，加上米金的leading indicator 3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily)今天先于米金跌了，因此米金明天有反弹的可能，这也意味着大盘会pullback。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

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明天ER的因素不考虑在内么？

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