美股 Solar 概要

dividend_growth

发信人: Laputa (以德糊人), 信区: Stock
标 题: 美股 Solar 概要
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 24 22:45:27 2009, 美东)

-- Solar 面板厂商 --

First Solar (FSLR) : CdTe 薄膜PV, 目前处于行业领先地位. 每瓦特成本即将
低于 $1.0, 目前没有哪家 Solar 厂商能做到这么低的 cost.

SunPower (SPWRA) : SunPower 做 c-Si PV. SunPower 在行业里做到最高的
conversion efficiency.

Evergreen (ESLR) : Evergreen 做 c-Si PV. 但是 Evergreen 拥有自己的技术
叫 String Ribbon. 这个技术提高了转换效率, 但是成本很高. 所以到目前为止
Evergreen 都无法赢利.

Emcore (EMKR) : multijunction III-V solar cell. EMKR 的技术还包括
Lens Concentrated Solar Panel. 这个技术就是把太阳光通过透镜聚焦到PV
的表面上, 从而提高转换率. 其结果就是, 高成本 (peak gross margin 10%
from its financial statement). 但是 Emcore 本身并不只做 solar , 也做光纤.

Ascent Solar (ASTI) : ASTI 做 CIGS 薄膜. ASTI 把CIGS 做到塑料上, 这个是个很大
的突破. 因为塑料薄膜非常适合于集成到建筑材料里. 在所有美股 Solar 里, Ascent
Solar 可能是最有前途 (如果它们的产品能大规模生产的话, 目前产能 1.5M)

DayStar (DSTI) : DayStar 做 CIGS 薄膜. 但是 DayStar 只能做在玻璃上. DayStar
以前是要做在塑料薄膜上的, 但是后来失败了, 只好做在玻璃上了. 基本上他们家的
产品没有太大竞争里. 现在基本上是混吃等死了.

Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) : ECD 是 a-Si 这个领域的大牛. 所以他家
做的是 a-Si thin-film. 但做在不锈刚基带上. 所以他家的 panel 也是 flexible
and light weight.


-- Wafer 和硅料 --

MEMC (WFR) : 任何搞半导体的可能都知道 Memc. 他是做半导体晶圆的大牛. 但是他们
的技术优势是 IC 级 Wafer. 但 Memc 也生产 Poly silicon 原料, 包括IC 级 和
Solar 级.

Hoku (hoku) : 主要生产 Poly Silicon 原料, 但也做其他的东西. 他们家已经没有
cash 了, 所以只好停止了新的 poly plant 的扩张.


-- Solar Installer --

Akeena (AKNS) : 这个是 solar installer, 不是面板产商. Installer 基本上没有什么
技术.

Real Goods Solar (RSOL) : 和 Akeena 一样, 是 Solar Installer. 没啥好说的.


-- Solar 生产设备厂商 --

GT Solar (SOLR) : GT Solar 是 Solar equipment 的厂商. 估计很多中国 solar 厂商都熟
悉. 因为很多是从 GT Solar 买的设备. 比如LDK 就是买的GT SOLAR 的反应炉.

Applied Material (AMAT) : 这个和 solar 关系不太大. 是最大的 semi equipment 产商之一. 近年来, 看 solar 赚钱眼红. 所以也开始制造 solar equipment. 他们家的 solar 产品主要是 SunFab . 是生产 a-Si thin-film panel 的机器.

Amtech Systems (ASYS) : 这个也是 solar equipment 厂商. 很多人可能不熟悉. 他们
家主要生产低档一些 solar 设备. 属于垃圾股, 但是是有赢利的. 炒炒可能挺好的.


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dividend_growth

发信人: Laputa (以德糊人), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 美股 Solar 概要
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 13:08:39 2009, 美东)

Interesting observation. My explanation is like this:

Under a constant condition, the demands reach
a equilibrium between different types of panels from different
solar makers. So now, when c-Si's price goes down, there will
be more demand to have c-Si panel and less demand for CdTe panel.
It doesn't matter how low price it is, because the demand change
only depends on marginal conditions (i.e. condition change).

So now talking about stock price, since under a constant condition,
everthing has been priced in. So if CdTe panels' demand is reduced,
FSLR has to lower their price to get more demand, therefore reducing
their gross margin.

FSLR's panel also has other drawbacks. One of them is that the Cd is
poisonous if CdTe is decomposed under high temperature. This will
limit their use in residential market.

I think Chinese solar makers are good, although First Solar is
definitely a Technology leader. But I am worrying about the ugly
price war in the future.


【 在 splendidchen (chen) 的大作中提到: 】
: Thanks a lot for your summary.
: I'm just wondering why FSLR is declining recently due to "threat from c-si
".
: If I recall correctly, they lost a contract to YGE some time ago, and
some
: of their spokemen once said they might consider switching to c-si in the
: future if necessary.
: But their cost is like $0.93/W in the recent Q, while c-si is still above
$2
: /W level. The gap still looks huge for me, and I don't think the
efficiency
: difference justifies more than doubling the price. Do you have any idea on
: that?
: Concentrated

dividend_growth

发信人: Laputa (以德糊人), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 美股 Solar 概要
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 21:41:42 2009, 美东)

Chinese solar companies are all the same. The only difference is
some of them have more money, some of them have less money.
I don't think I can write out one page on them.

Panel: YGE/TSL/STP/JASO/CSIQ/CSUN
Wafer/Material: SOL/LDK

Panel are all c-Si. Wafers are all solar-grade.

Also, most of people here are very familiar with Chinse Solar stocks.


【 在 markwen (dpp) 的大作中提到: 】
: Nice post, it seems we will see a fierce competition in this sector in the
: future. Could you do another analysis on Chinese solar companies as well?
: Thanks for sharing.

小咪

good to know! thanks

tomorrow

人无完人

palm

thanks.

mtlu2

thanks .

niufen88

thanks

momozaza

已阅，谢谢！

maimait

archieved le, thanks a lot.

股舞人生

谢谢！如果能再祥尽地分析一下中概的SOLAR,就更好了

RedCedar

Thanks a lot!!

ajs

happy_trader

hao

happy_trader

好

happy_trader

好东西

seabiscuit

谢谢转帖。FSLR 还没跌够，见高就short,  应该最近会fill 那个big  gap. just my opinion.

snowwolf229

jack3400

Thanks for sharing! Ding!!!