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1. On daily chart, NYSI's middle Bollinger Band (20,2) (i.e. SMA20 of NYSI) changed direction to downward. NYSI MBB rarely changes direction, once it does, it doesn't go back. In last 3 years, after an intermediate term trend has run a long time, new MBB direction has mostly confirmed a new intermediate term trend.
2. BB width is very small now, suggesting that a large NYSI movement is coming soon. Most likely it will be a downward movement because of the direction change of MBB and
3. Downtrend of NYSI gauged by MACD has been established for a while.
So it is very possible that an intermediate term downtrend has started.
There were exceptions that NYSI and NYS moved in opposite direction (in 2007). Those negative divergences followed by sizable drops later. |
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