找回密码
 注册
搜索
查看: 2365|回复: 19

[转贴] A New Signal for Next Great Decline in Stocks

[复制链接]
发表于 2009-6-8 12:11 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


An Incredible Shorting Opportunity Is at Hand

By Jeff Clark


The stock market is poised to collapse.

There's no other way to put it, and I'm hoping that sentence gets your attention. Your financial wellbeing depends on it. Stocks are in dangerous territory. The rally over the past three months has done exactly what bear-market rallies are supposed to do – get everyone excited that a new bull market is underway.

This is not a new bull market. It's the biggest bull trap investors are likely to encounter this decade... And you need to avoid it.

The problem for potential short sellers has been a persistent bid underneath the stock market and an absence of overwhelmingly bearish chart patterns. Now, however, with the market rally extending into its third month and the investing public growing more and more excited about jumping back into the stock market, many charts are taking on bearish characteristics.

The one that looks most bearish to me is Goldman Sachs...

Goldman Sachs is a major Wall Street investment bank. It consistently generates numbers above and beyond that of its competitors. Its traders report the highest return on equity of any firm on the Street. And it is the investment bank with the closest ties to Washington D.C.

The fundamental problem with Goldman Sachs is the numbers are too good. How is it that in the midst of a financial meltdown that took out Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, AIG, and all the rest of the financial firms, Goldman emerged unscathed? How is it Goldman reported record earnings? How is it that in the culture of Wall Street, which rewards following the herd, Goldman sidestepped all the land mines?

Are its traders so much more brilliant than everyone else? Or is there more to the story?

My bet is on the latter. Goldman's last earnings report is like a Salvador Dali painting. It's an aberration of reality.

Goldman has a nasty habit of both reporting short-term gains to juice up its quarterly earnings reports and avoiding the markdowns of long-term losing positions that would have a negative effect.

It's like depositing your paycheck in the bank and then paying all of your monthly expenses with a credit card. At the end of one month, you have more money than you did before, and you only report the minimum payment required on your credit card as an expense.

The result looks really good on paper. Eventually, though, the funny accounting no longer works. It happened with MCI Communications. It happened with Enron. And it'll happen with Goldman Sachs.

I'm not betting on the long-term demise of Goldman – although, I think that's a good bet. I'm speculating there may be some fundamental event which causes Goldman to break down in the short term, and that event may have something to do with its accounting policies.

What I'm really betting on is the technical pattern of Goldman's stock. It's abhorrently bearish in the short term. Take a look at its chart...



20090608_chart_a.gif
  


This is a textbook example of a bearish rising-wedge pattern. The pattern is formed as a stock moves higher and the difference between the highs and lows gets narrower. You can also see the negative divergence in the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator.

Most of the time, these charts break to the downside in a quick and violent move. (You can see it in action here.)

I expect we'll see the same thing from Goldman Sachs, and I'm willing to bet it happens soon.

Best regards & good trading,

Jeff Clark
发表于 2009-6-8 03:29 PM | 显示全部楼层
问题是道指87年崩盘后走的也像个bearish rising wedge。

只有跌破上升通道,才能肯定是bearish rising wedge。
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 03:38 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 03:46 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 04:16 PM | 显示全部楼层
强趋势的情况下,跌破wedge可以变成平行通道继续上升。。。所以也不是说跌破wedge就一定可以放心作空。。。
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 04:24 PM | 显示全部楼层
问题是道指87年崩盘后走的也像个bearish rising wedge。

只有跌破上升通道,才能肯定是bearish rising wedge。
dividend_growth 发表于 2009-6-8 16:29






回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 04:50 PM | 显示全部楼层
Betting against the trend, is gambling.
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 04:51 PM | 显示全部楼层
2# dividend_growth
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 05:18 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 dara 于 2009-6-8 18:20 编辑

I am not sure if big market will down alot soon, but from my own analysis, I know GS/WFC/JPM are just purely overvalued at this time, and my analysis has never wrong in the last 10 years, LOL.

GS 150 right now is like GS 220 in 2008 because of all the dilution, how can it worth so much? I just do not get it.


I am betting FINANCE down right now, have a lot of SKF stock and FAS JULY PUT on hands.
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 05:31 PM | 显示全部楼层
I am not sure if big market will down alot soon, but from my own analysis, I know GS/WFC/JPM are just purely overvalued at this time, and my analysis has never wrong in the last 10 years, LOL.

GS 150 right now is like GS 220 in 2008 because of all the dilution, how can it worth so much? I just do not get it.


I am betting FINANCE down right now, have a lot of SKF stock and FAS JULY PUT on hands.
dara 发表于 2009-6-8 06:18 PM


I WON'T ENTER SW SHORT ON GS BEFORE 160。。。

回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 05:40 PM | 显示全部楼层
I WON'T ENTER SW SHORT ON GS BEFORE 160。。。


多吉 发表于 2009-6-8 18:31



I am going to hold SKF for a while, even GS goes to 160.

I made the biggest mistake was I sold SKF at 103 at the begin of the year and start  to buy UYG, and it becomes my No.1 losing stock in 2009.

I do not want to repeat the same mistake, I like SKF current price.
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 07:01 PM | 显示全部楼层
多吉老大对金融没什么好感哈

I WON'T ENTER SW SHORT ON GS BEFORE 160。。。


多吉 发表于 2009-6-8 18:31
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 07:21 PM | 显示全部楼层
看跌!!!
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 08:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
问题是道指87年崩盘后走的也像个bearish rising wedge。

只有跌破上升通道,才能肯定是bearish rising wedge。
dividend_growth 发表于 2009-6-8 16:29



有道理。
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 08:35 PM | 显示全部楼层
Jeff Clark 看熊有一阵子了
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 09:16 PM | 显示全部楼层
平常心。找一点不跟大盘的股。
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 10:07 PM | 显示全部楼层
hoho
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-8 11:53 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-9 01:52 AM | 显示全部楼层
thanks for sharing.
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-6-9 02:10 AM | 显示全部楼层
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

手机版|小黑屋|www.hutong9.net

GMT-5, 2025-7-20 06:17 PM , Processed in 0.061173 second(s), 18 queries .

Powered by Discuz! X3.5

© 2001-2024 Discuz! Team.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表