本帖最后由 股帝 于 2009-4-15 22:13 编辑
先讲好了，不 ｃａｒｅ ＦＡ 的，不要看．不然你会闷死的．
就算爱看ＦＡ的，这也可能把你猛的睡着了，或找不到北了．
有些好友已看了， 回去睡吧！但你会漏看了结尾的号外．
再看了一下WFC的10K， financial report。 除非我算错了， 不然， 2009底前， WFC到期要还的debt有近25B左右（assuming no more writedown）。 这样，WFC的下几个季，best case 是close to break even。很有可能会亏。
也就是说， WFC from this point on， upside is limited, risk is pretty high, 有脑的该不会再买， MM也不笨， 一定能看到我看的问题。 他们会跑。
要是WFC也如此， 别的，就不用说了。 C 和 BAC could be in trouble again in the 3rd or 4th quarter。
It's worth to note that, the % of commercial loan weigh heavier this year on WFC's sheet than last year. Well, God forbids, if the commercial loan crisis does kick in as predicted, WFC will face some serious deep shit again. Commercial loan default, it's worth to know that, always has a delay default cycle than residential loan.
The about 25B debt that WFC needs to repay this year, includes part of the TARP money and part of the so called investment debt. I played conservative for WFC already assuming that, WFC does not need to repay the TARP portion out of their pocket, which should be about half of the 25B. However, to get rid of the control from Fed, they don't want to owe the TARP money and want to pay it back asap.
And where does WFC generate the money to repay both the TARP and the debt? Besides from cutting into their earnings, they can issue more shares to raise money just like GS is doing now. However, based on the size of the GS secondary offering, WFC's offering will be in couple of billion range at best assuming the public is willing to buy into it. That will leave a couple of billion dollar negative per quarter for WFC to fill. WFC has enough long term debt on their balance sheet that, only the Fed will be willing to lend them money to repay the short term debt, no other financial firms will be able to do it now. Now, tell me how much more the Fed can print to pay all the debts for all the banks in trouble.
WFC is considered as one of the better survivors and they are facing a lot of shit like that. It will not be too hard to feel the pain for C and BAC etc. If the balance sheet for C is so good, there would not be a nationalization proceed 6 weeks ago. How could this all be changed in 6 weeks? You tell me.
What the Fed is doing now is, trying to print money, in the hope of keeping the banks wjth enough so called "earning" from lending out cheap money so that the bank can buy time to repay the debt.
Unfortunately, there is only that much room for a bank to make profit under such dire economic environment and tight credit market.
I am sure a lot of honest analysts will see the same thing as I am seeing now. And a lot of MM knows this shit sooner or later will hit the fan again.
Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that, this market will not move much higher from here. But the next down leg will be very very scary.
好，那房事要好了，请看：
The key is, with so many people out of job, most of the people who can buy houses now will be investors. However, for investors, they will not expect a quick turn around to flip houses, therefore, they will only buy houses that will provide them reasonable rental return ratio, that's why you are seeing investors buying up foreclosure homes.
Another problem is, with so much debt on their balance sheet, Fed's injected money will not pump up the credit market right the way. And as the tighten up of the regulations, most of the residential loans will require certain % of down payment and good credit. Well, at this tight job market, that's exactly what will be lacking.
This is like a deadlock situation. People needs to understand that, the loosen up of the credit market will take time to develop and that's why it's not realistic to expect a quick turn around on housing market and we should not expect people to rush in to buy "normal" properties.
With the unclear economic scene and decaying job market, how many people would be willing to take up more debt and mortgage again?
Also, the baby boomers are getting a reality shock right now and, if you are one of them, would you care more on preserving whatever you have now so that you can retire, or would you take the risk of buying stocks and buying houses as investment again?
The mental shock of this crisis will have a lingering effect for a while, which will greatly affect the investment decisions for a lot of people for a long while.
Two observations also concern me quite a bit:
1. The firearm sales during the last 6 months have been more than triple. As a matter of fact, firearm sales is almost the single sector that has huge growth last year.
2. The number of people who joined extreme groups ｔｈａｔ are against immigrants have grown by more than 1 million people.
I read a book, "Wealth, War and Wisdom", back then. At that time I thought most of the opinions were too extreme. But now, ｔｈｅｙ ｄｏ make a lot of sense.
I am not sure if I am too pessimistic or not. However, I do not view the economy and credit market as a whole has any sign of improvement.
The data released today also showing that, the foreclosure homes in March again, is on record pace. It broke the record set on Feb.
I believe that, the current monetary policy, the using debt to carry debt policy, would only push the US into deeper crisis down the road.
拍砖吧，我接着！ |
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发表于 2009-4-15 08:52 PM
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