小学生的 ES 作业 (1/11/2016)

HappyMoney

SPX has made lower low and lower high on daily chart for 4 days, now -5.88% for the year. On the daily chart, today is the 4th day that SPX closed below the lower BB. Can we see a good oversold bounce tomorrow? August low SPX 1867 is another reference level. It is very possible to test that level before the selloff is over. But it might not get there in a straight line. My best guess is that we could see a bounce to ES 1953 in next day or two. 1970 area will be a little stretched. Then it might resume the selloff to 1860 area. And then a good rally from there to maybe ES 1990 sometime in March. But that is just a guess. I will measure it one step at a time.

For tomorrow ES trading:
·         Slightly bullish bias. ES need to stay above 1892.5 to keep that slightly bullish bias. And it's better to get above 1929.
·         Above 1929 could trigger some buy stops. The upside target is around 1950, might not get there tomorrow though.
·         Below 1892.5 will be very ugly. It could target 1860 area.
·         Meanwhile, have to watch crude oil. Crude below $30 will trigger some selling on equities.
·         Shanghai market is in the media focus these days. I am not extremely worried about it at this moment, unless RMB moves too dramatically.

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georgeyn

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HappyMoney

1/12/16 Morning update:

ES is +18 from prior day settle as I am typing. Too many shorts might get caught by this big gap up. If ES doesn't go below 1929, shorts will be forced to cover. As long as ES stays above 1922~1923 area , the bias is still to the upside. If below 1915, bulls has no hope.

cfayahoo

HappyMoney 发表于 2016-1-12 08:58 AM
1/12/16 Morning update:

ES is +18 from prior day settle as I am typing. Too many shorts might get ...

so diligent,