Good news & bad news

luckystar2006

Let's begin with the good news first because I think this dead cat bounce has more rooms to go up tomorrow/Wednesday.   This reliable setup was triggered during noon today.  Green squares show the route that I guess market will follow.  Forgive me that I couldn't display this chart soon enough today as I was very busy driving outside for the whole day.  I got up ~7am to avoid rush morning hours and I didn't get home until half an hour ago (i.e.  10:20pm).

luckystar2006

Bad news is that I strongly believe there are more on the downside.   Below chart shows two scenarios which look so similar after the first day breaking out on the downside

luckystar2006

Another bad news is that MACD from VIX chart is crossing above.  I hardly believe that it's over since VIX hasn't broken out on the upside yet.

zhao

nice to see your post & chart, I like them

zhutou3

真好的分析， 能大概说说这轮反弹可能的高度吗？ 谢谢！

lite1067

上看SPY205? 那已经很不错了。i am worried the situation could be worse.

源济

谢谢分享！

luckystar2006

One last chart before turning off my computers.  

Most of weekly gap get filled few months after (as shown in blue circles).  At present, we have 2 open gaps (red and green one).  It's very interesting in the next few days/weeks to find out which route market will take.  Let's make a guess, shall we???  I'll be the last one to guess

dsp

我更担心的是没有HH的这轮下跌，是不是就彻底断送了几年的牛市。

五谷

cfayahoo

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-5 12:10 AM
One last chart before turning off my computers.  

Most of weekly gap get filled few months after  ...

Green quickly then red, my guess

hais

如果看熊，这个新缺口几个月以后补。如果看牛或中性，就等马上补。

我是谁

这个新缺口就补上within a dozen days.

luckystar2006

Intraday Futures chart suggests ES will break out later this afternoon or tomorrow (I'm not sure which direction yet.)  Green squares show similar setups like in December 14th and December 21st.  Blue circles shows ES tend to consolidate around that area after touching red line.  The only way to be certain that this rebound has more legs on the upside is when red line crosses above lower BB (i.e. yellow circles), which is where easy money is made with less risks.

风行过

希望是先补红的。今天早上以为上来就会惊天动地的往上杀，现在看来先补红的还是有可能的。

qunzong

Good one.

ysc

thanks.

luckystar2006

It's very possible that intraday ES is going to break out on the upside tonight.  I guess anyone who is still being a bear here is quite risky???

luckystar2006

hmm..... ES is breaking out, but not on the upside as anticipated

It looks more like a double top now

lite1067

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-5 10:07 PM
hmm..... ES is breaking out, but not on the upside as anticipated

It looks more like a dou ...

加油！