俺的一个前floortrader朋友下周的分析，供参考

Cobra

i thought that the mkt showed remarkable strength today (twice) coming back from the opening weakness & then bouncing back late after the false breakout to the upside.   There has been a tendency for the mutual funds to mark prices up towards the end of a month and then for prices to decline at the beginning of the new month once their bids are no longer there.   Having said the above, i think the mkt will be weak early this coming Monday; but prices will recover & bounce back and go to new highs (for this move from the recent lows).   I think the pattern of early weakness then recovery will also be the case Weds, the day after the election.  Many are looking for a selloff after the election.  I think that either reflects their prejudice about an Obama victory or their fears or suspicions about the way the mkt will react.  However, i think, the mkt has already discounted an Obama victory. . . enough to recover after early attempts to sell the mkt down Weds morning.    On the other hand, IF McCain wins, which is a greater possibility than the conventional wisdom the mkt will zoom for one or two days because a McCain win has not been discounted by the mkt.   All of the above is within the framework of a bear mkt rally NOT a new bull mkt after a bear mkt bottom.  Volume will be lacking even on the upside.

 

 

后来又修正：

 

After reviewing charts, i'm going to try to remember to stop calling this a bear mkt "rally".  It's a consolidation within a bear mkt similar in function to the consolidation of late July to early August not necessarily in shape but in function.  That being to relieve the oversold condition that existed earlier this past week.

bjva

Thank you, Cobra! 

monaly

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monaly

coexist

....

stockhq

Can you explain a little bit about the following statement? It is not a rally, just consolidation for next down?
Thanks.

After reviewing charts, i'm going to try to remember to stop calling this a bear mkt "rally".  It's a consolidation within a bear mkt similar in function to the consolidation of late July to early August not necessarily in shape but in function.  That being to relieve the oversold condition that existed earlier this past week.

seafood

谢谢老蛇

nobo

Thank you very much for the post. But disagree with the last point. We are in a choppy consolidation of wave 3-4 up. After a brief (~3 weeks) sell off to the 760 area, we'll see a decent mid-term rally.

Cobra

原帖由 stockhq 于 2008-10-31 21:44 发表 Can you explain a little bit about the following statement? It is not a rally, just consolidation for next down?Thanks.After reviewing charts, i'm going to try to remember to stop calling this a bear ...

 

就是说还要跌。

purety

lol 真直接 难得cobra这么直接

happylux

Nice one. Thx.

goodmood

thanks.

SAR

Thanks.

Brainteaser

yingying

原帖由 Cobra 于 2008-10-31 22:22 发表   就是说还要跌。

 

 

蛇老大，你这朋友难道是说下周一跌周二（不明）周三开始recover，因为小散户都以为会有sell off发生在election后？还是我理解错了？

[ 本帖最后由 yingying 于 2008-10-31 22:36 编辑 ]

牛郎

Fully agreed it's a consolidation of late July to early August, that's exactly what I thought.

swing

thanks a lot

peregrine

谢谢, 阔老大!!!

无非牛熊猪

The consolidation is what I thought. Thank you for sharing!

牛郎

原帖由 牛郎 于 2008-10-31 22:39 发表 Fully agreed it's a consolidation of late July to early August, that's exactly what I thought.

But the difference is, this consolidation will be even weaker and shorter lived than that one.