中期投资者需要考虑思路和策略

MLat42

For medium-term traders and investors:

2004 和2011 年是一种思路，前半年10%左右的震荡。2000 和2007年是另外一种考虑。

图片显示震荡幅度。



It is obvious there were several reasons that SnP500 goes into market pullbacks and/or corrections:

1.) Major Financial Crises that greatly affected the US such as the US Banking Crisis of 2008/09 caused 57% meltdown for SnP500 that resulted in the Great Recession. This was also true of the Global Oil Crisis that caused the Severe Recession of 1973/74 with SnP500 losing maximum 48%;

2.) Major Financial Crises originating from abroad caused pullbacks (on some) and and market corrections (for others) for the SnP500. So far, the Russian Debt Crisis and EU Debt Crisis the most pronounced with 22.44% and 21.53% respectively;

3.) Major Profit Taking happened in March 2000 to March 2001 with SnP500 losing 30% caused by the Dotcom Collapse - after it rallied vertically for 5-1/2 years with 256% gain. This was also true in Aug-Oct 1987, called the Black Swan, wherein SnP500 lost 38% after rallying vertically from 1982 to 1987 with 251% gain.

Other than those; there were several instances of Minor Profit Takings such as the 14.5% correction of 1983 and the 11% of 1996.

So far, SnP500 has rallied vertically from the November 2012 higher low bottom with 49% gain. Taper Tantrums and/or Sector Rotations are the major cause of pullbacks with maximum 7.53% in May-June 2013 and 6% in Jan-Feb 2014;

4.) 9/11 caused 18% vertical sell-off and the onset of Iraq + Afghanistan Wars 34% meltdown toward the October 2002 bottom.

There were 3 years and 3-1/2 years of VIX calming periods after major crises events. And there were sequences of investors hedging their positions as SnP500 rallied vertically for 256% from Dec 1994 to March 2000 (= 5-1/2 years) and 105% from October 2002 to October 2007 (= 5 years).

Pullbacks caused by wars and/or rumors of wars originating from abroad - including catastrophic events such as Katrina and the Asian Earthquakes + Tsunamis - are very hard to identify on the monthly chart for the SnP500.

Other than those, SnP500 simply just kept rallying with minor to major pullbacks too insignificant for medium-term traders and investors. More suitable for daytraders and other short-term traders such as scalpers and HFTs.

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