为什么说下周会回调一下

mitwkwk

这纯粹是技术上看。基本面没有坏的，消息也没有什么坏的，但是涨得太猛本身就不是一件健康的事情，短跑完了肯定要喘口气。哪怕不暴跌，至少也要横盘整理，否则牛的就没道理了

看uvxy的图，连续四天收在bb线下方，熊的不能再熊了。自从有uvxy以来，还从来没有连续五天收在bb线下方过。只有今年四月份的那一段堪堪比拟。

macd：尽管一再创下新低，但是macd居然是正的。RSI呢？uvxy新低归新低，但是RSI和九月的比起来却没有再低下去。这说明什么？跌无可跌，涨无可涨

这次spx的三白兵，牛的没边了，但这次和10月份的三白兵大有不同。qqq，spx连续三天收在bb线上端以外，但是喇叭口的下线还没有下坠。按照这个趋势，如果周一要继续收绿，那一定还在bb线上方。连续四天收在bb线上方？回头看整个spx历史，没有几次。05年6月算一次，但第四天收的是个红十字，然后开始下跌。除非这次牛的像97年6月6左右那一波。那次以后，再也没见过这么牛的走势。但即便是那次，中间还出了一个上影缓了一下。

美国股市真的到了这么牛的时候了么？我继续看好下周开始整理，至少uvxy该涨一下了吧

befriend

恒一

hais

应该会有一两天的回调，仍是上牛车的机会。

novice_trader

mitwkwk

hais 发表于 2013-11-17 02:18 PM
应该会有一两天的回调，仍是上牛车的机会。

可以肯定的是，上牛车是一定会有机会的

但是回调是不是只有一两天就不好说了。现在不回调，真的就赶不上年底的rally了

es已经开跌了

coexist

fishpet1

thank you very much

mitwkwk

老泪纵横啊，终于等到了

uvxy买早了，下次吸取教训

heheboy

UVXY is not a good instrument to bet on short, contango kills it all...today VIX up more than 5%, UVXY is still in red...

mitwkwk

heheboy 发表于 2013-11-18 06:50 PM
UVXY is not a good instrument to bet on short, contango kills it all...today VIX up more than 5%, UV ...

是啊，我有点混乱了

uvxy到底什么情况下会涨呢

heheboy

http://vixcentral.com/

if you understand this, you can play UVXY.

mitwkwk

heheboy 发表于 2013-11-19 07:17 AM
http://vixcentral.com/

if you understand this, you can play UVXY.

谢谢，这么说uvxy是衡量市场活跃与否的标志，市场不活跃的时候，它才会上涨。这么理解就对了吧

heheboy

no, UVXY has nth to do with 衡量市场活跃与否....it is linked to VIX futures and it basically keep buying and roll over future contracts. And VIX is related to SPX option ( put and call ). there is a equation for VIX.

mitwkwk

heheboy 发表于 2013-11-19 09:21 AM
no, UVXY has nth to do with 衡量市场活跃与否....it is linked to VIX futures and it basically keep bu ...

啊，这样啊

我一直以为vix是衡量volatality的，uvxy就是vix反着来，看来我错了

heheboy

UVXY follows the next two months VIX contract price, and it rolls over the contract at the expiration of every month to buy contract of future month. Like now it is time for UVXY to sell its holding of Dec contract and buy Jan contract..this will cause decaying in its NAV value unless VX Z3-CF and VX F4-CF goes up a lot, but seems not possible to due to holiday effect.

It is very wrong to use either UVXY or VIX to guess if market is topped and need a drop,  especially with UVXY.

heheboy

market down, UVXY also down..decaying kills all.

atrader

dsp

mitwkwk

heheboy 发表于 2013-11-19 06:08 PM
UVXY follows the next two months VIX contract price, and it rolls over the contract at the expiratio ...

谢谢指正啊，我还要多学习