道氏理论揭秘股市走向

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Mark Hulbert

（编者按：本文英文原文发表于10月16日MarketWatch英文网站）

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人敬重的道氏理论(Dow Theory)是怎样看待股市走向的？

无论从哪个角度来看，这都是一个重要的问题。

道氏理论可能是目前仍在广泛使用的最古老的市场择时理论。而且，道氏理论的投资战果也颇为辉煌：在《赫伯特金融摘要》(Hulbert Financial Digest)追踪的三位道氏理论家中，有两位的股市表现在过去的10年间打败了买入持有策略(buy-and-hold)的表现。这两位道氏理论家分别是：TheDowTheory.com的编辑杰克·施纳普(Jack Schannep)和《道氏理论预测》(Dow Theory Forecasts)投资通讯的编辑理查德·莫洛尼(Richard Moroney)。

对投资者来说幸运的是，这两位道氏理论家都认为目前我们应该相信牛市还将持续──尽管美国政府不久前曾短暂关闭，美国财政也面临着赤字风险。

为了理解其中的原因，回顾一下道氏理论中有关卖出信号出现的三个先决条件很有帮助：

-第一条件：道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)和道琼斯运输业平均指数(Dow Jones Transportation Average)都必须在创下新高后经历“重大”回调。

-第二条件：在回调之后的“大幅”反弹过程中，这两个指数中的一个或两个必须维持在此前高点的下方。

-第三条件：随后这两个指数都必须跌至各自的回调低点下方。

施纳普和莫洛尼认为，在卖出信号出现的这三个先决条件中，至多只有第一个得到了满足。这是由于，道琼斯工业平均指数和道琼斯运输业平均指数在9月中旬双双创下历史新高后都经历了近三周的下跌（按收盘水平衡量），其中道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为5.7%，道琼斯运输业平均指数的跌幅为4.2%。

有关上述下跌是否满足“第一条件”仍然存疑的原因是：上述下跌能否称得上“重大”。在过去的一个世纪中，很多道氏理论家都将指数下跌时间必须至少为三个星期作为了衡量“重大”回调的标准。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌的时间为差一天三个星期，道琼斯运输业平均指数下跌的时间为19天──差两天三个星期。

不过，施纳普认为，“第一条件”已经得到了满足。鉴于如今市场走势持续的时间并不一定与一个世纪前道氏理论创立时一样长，因此施纳普将衡量“重大”回调的标准设定为跌幅至少为3%。当然，这一标准已经得到了充分满足。

相比之下，莫洛尼坚持采用更为传统的评判标准，因此他并不认为两个指数的近期走低称得上回调。目前莫洛尼正在关注的、与道氏理论相关的近期事件是两个指数在9月分别创下的新高。他将这一事件称之为“主要多头趋势的清晰再确认”。

即使你同意施纳普“第一条件”已经满足的见解，但请注意，卖出信号还远未出现。接下来需要满足的条件是这两个指数中的一个或两个必须维持在它们各自9月份收盘高位的下方（道琼斯工业平均指数的9月份高位是15,676.04点，道琼斯运输业平均指数的9月份高位是6,726.94点），随后这两个指数还必须跌破各自10月8日的收盘低位（分别为14,776.53点和6,446.75点）。

因此，即便按照施纳普的解读，我们也尽可以静观其变了，就让市场来揭晓最终的谜底吧。与此同时，由于道氏理论认为卖出信号仍未出现，道氏理论对股市仍持看涨态度。

那么《赫伯特金融摘要》追踪的第三位道氏理论家是哪位呢？他就是《道氏理论通讯》(Dow Theory Letters)的编辑理查德·罗素(Richard Russell)。目前，他正在致力于原始道氏理论另一方面的研究。

他最近对客户写道：“道氏理论不仅反映了指数的走势。很重要的一点是，现代道氏理论还强调了价值的重要性。我想再次提醒订阅者的是，目前市场的估价过高了。道琼斯工业平均指数的派息率只有2.21%，而标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)的派息率则只有2.09%。这使股市的各个方面都容易受到加息的影响。”

综上所述，在我追踪的三位道氏理论家中，有两位认为牛市的形态仍然完整；另一位并不太反对这个结论，至少从短期上来看是如此──这一点是提醒我们牛市并不会一直延续下去。

（Mark Hulbert是北卡罗来纳州查珀尔希尔Hulbert Financial Digest的创始人。自1980年以来他一直在跟踪逾160份金融简讯提供的建议。）

（本文译自MarketWatch）

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moreliver

很有教益的信息，HT有几个乐于与大家共享，提供这种信息的人，这是我喜欢HT的原因之一。

原文如下：（http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-now-dow-theory-2013-10-16）

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Where does the venerable Dow Theory say the stock market is headed?

It’s an important question for any of a number of reasons.

The Dow Theory is perhaps the oldest market timing system that remains in widespread use today. And it also has a good track record: Two of the three Dow Theorists monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest have beaten a buy-and-hold in the stock market over the last decade: Jack Schannep, editor of TheDowTheory.com, and Richard Moroney, editor of Dow Theory Forecasts.

Fortunately for investors, both of these Dow Theorists believe we should be giving the bull market the benefit of the doubt—notwithstanding the government shutdown and the threat of a Treasury default.

To understand why, it’s helpful to review the three Dow Theory preconditions for a sell signal:

••Step No. 1: Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average must undergo a “significant” correction from joint new highs.

••Step No. 2: In their subsequent “significant” rally attempt following that correction, either one or both of these Dow averages must fail to rise above their pre-correction highs.

••Step No. 3: Both averages must then drop below their respective correction lows

On both Schannep’s and Moroney’s interpretation, at most only the first of these three preconditions for a sell signal have been met. That’s because, following their new all-time highs set in mid-September, both Dow averages underwent a nearly three-week decline that (on a closing basis) took 5.7% off the Dow Industrials /quotes/zigman/627449/realtime DJIA +0.45%   and 4.2% off the Dow Transports /quotes/zigman/627450/realtime DJT +1.04%  .

The reason there is even doubt about whether these declines satisfy step 1 is whether those declines were “significant.” Many Dow Theorists over the last century have operated on the assumption that, to be “significant,” a decline must last at least three weeks. And the Dow Industrials’ decline was a day shy of last three weeks, and the Dow Transports’ decline lasted just 19 days — two days short.

• Government shutdown: Track the latest news out of Washington »
/conga/story/2013/10/governmentshutdownstream.html 282136
Schannep nevertheless believes step 1 has been satisfied. Noting that market moves don’t necessarily last as long today as when the Dow Theory was created a century ago, his criterion for whether a decline is “significant” is whether it was at least 3%. And, of course, that criterion was more than satisfied.

Moroney, in contrast, adheres to the more traditional interpretation, and therefore isn’t even calling the Averages’ recent decline a correction. The most recent Dow Theory-related event on which he is focusing is the Averages’ joint new highs in September, which he terms “an unambiguous reconfirmation of the bullish primary trend.”

Even if you agree with Schannep that step 1 has been satisfied, however, note that we’re still a long ways from a sell signal. The next step would be for either one or both Dow averages to fail to surpass their September closing highs (15,676.04 for the Industrials and 6,726.94 for the Transports) and then both break below their Oct. 8 closing lows (14,776.53 and 6,446.75, respectively).

Even on Schannep’s interpretation, therefore, we can wait and let the market tell its story. In the meantime, because the Dow Theory assumes that the most recent signal remains in place until overturned, the Dow Theory remains bullish.

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What about the third Dow Theorist who is monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest? That would be Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters. And he currently is focusing on another aspect of the original Dow Theory.

As he recently wrote to clients: “[The] Dow Theory is not only about the movement of the averages. While important, modern Dow Theory also emphasizes the importance of values. And I’ll remind my subscribers once again that this market is over-valued. The dividend yield on the Industrials is a mere 2.21% and on the S&P 500 it is 2.09%. This makes many of these issues susceptible to rises in interest rates.”

So there you have it. On the interpretations of two of the three Dow Theorists I monitor, the bull market remains intact. And the third doesn’t so much disagree with that assessment, at least for the short term, as remind us that the bull market won’t last forever.

Click here to inquire about subscriptions to the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index.

Click here to learn more about the Hulbert Financial Digest.

/quotes/zigman/627449/realtime  add Add to portfolio DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average US : DJ-Index 15,615.55 +69.80 +0.45% Volume: 101.83mNov. 1, 2013loading...  /quotes/zigman/627450/realtime  add Add to portfolio DJT Dow Jones Transportation Average US : DJ-Index 7,047.77 +72.59 +1.04% Volume: 11.94mNov. 1, 2013loading...  

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Chapel Hill, N.C. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980. Follow him on Twitter @MktwHulbert.

moreliver

有一点值得注意，即这篇文章是发表于10/16/2013。当时的市场确实是牛市正旺，慧指数系统在10/16前后几天中都不断预报股市上涨（见我每天更新的博客）。

但现在形势有点不同，这从下图中可明显看出。注意10/16 前后的慧指数变化是大盘上升的信号，而10/30 后的慧指数变化则完全符合上文中提到的大盘卖点判断。


股市易变，阅读评论文章时要注意其时间性。