年底股市还要大涨6%？

ctcld

美联储新掌门悬念：揭晓就是股市利好

　　随着美联储主席伯南克明年1月退休日期的临近，近期有关下任美联储掌门的猜测也日益升温。不过，有研究机构指出，从历史经验看，不管最终是谁来接任伯南克，只要新的人选尘埃落定，美股随后就有望大幅上涨。

　　前美联储经济学家、Cornerstone宏观公司合伙人罗伯托·佩里近日发布报告指出，在保罗·沃尔克、格林斯潘和伯南克接获美联储主席委任后的一个月里，美国股市平均上涨约6%。

　　根据佩里的研究，上述三位被提名者都被市场认为是可接受的，他们要么不太可能偏离前任确立的政策道路，比如格林斯潘和伯南克；要么即将推行的政策有望获得受欢迎的结果，比如沃尔克和他的打击通胀策略。

　　现任美联储主席伯南克的任期定于明年1月31日结束。佩里表示，可以假定这次的市场行为可能与以往相似。

　　他指出，只要下任主席不是某位被视为会快速实施紧缩政策的人士，股市投资者就会把注意力继续放在经济和企业盈利正在改善的前景上。

　　相比之下，佩里表示，债券市场则对美联储掌门新任人选没有一致的反应。债券收益率以往没有出现一致的模式，其表现更多与被提名者的政策偏好以及当时的特定经济形势相符。当沃尔克被提名为美联储主席时，由于市场预期货币政策会收紧，美国10年期国债收益率攀升；当格林斯潘获得委任之时，国债收益率下跌，因为他被视为可能维持温和的政策道路。

　　佩里认为，债券市场可能受被提名者人选的影响更大。如果总统奥巴马选择现任美联储副主席耶伦或前美联储副主席科恩，投资者将继续压低债券收益率，因为预期未来两年内不会加息；而如果哈佛大学教授萨默斯被提名，投资者可能担忧美联储提前收紧政策，债券收益率就会攀升。

snowrider

福多多

源济

美眉妹

novice_trader

dsp

The point is 6% up from which point.

Down 10% first then 6% up is totally different.

oldpigwang

snowrider 发表于 2013-8-10 05:20 PM

年底股市 6% up from Oct/Nov 20 % sell off dip.

ctcld

dsp 发表于 2013-8-10 07:13 PM
The point is 6% up from which point.

Down 10% first then 6% up is totally different.

应该是接在圣诞Rally之后。

Elephant

ctcld 发表于 2013-8-11 01:01 AM
应该是接在圣诞Rally之后。

老大，那能是年底吗？

那该叫明年年初了。

wsjboy

ctcld 发表于 2013-8-11 02:01 AM
应该是接在圣诞Rally之后。

No, count from the day when new fed chairman selection is announced, according to the original article.

wsjboy

Financial markets may repeat their historical response to the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman when Ben S. Bernanke’s successor is announced.

That’s according to a former Fed economist who notes equities rallied about 6 percent in the month after the selections of Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan and Bernanke.

“All three nominees were deemed acceptable by the markets and either unlikely to deviate from the policy course set by their predecessor (Greenspan and Bernanke) or about to set out to achieve a desirable result (Volcker and his inflation fight),” Roberto Perli, a Washington-based partner for Cornerstone Macro LP, said in an August 6 report.

Bond yields did not exhibit a consistent pattern and behaved more in line with the policy preferences of the nominee as well as specific economic conditions of the time, Perli said. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose when Volcker was named chairman in anticipation of tighter monetary policy, while they fell when Greenspan was picked because he was seen as likely to maintain a moderate policy course.

Bernanke’s term ends Jan. 31, and while drawing parallels with history can be risky, Perli said a case could be made that market behavior will be similar this time around.

So long as the next chairman isn’t viewed as someone who will tighten policy quickly, then stock investors will stay focused on the improving outlook for economic and earnings growth, he said.

The bond market may be more influenced by the choice of the nominee, according to Perli. If President Barack Obama chooses Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen or former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn then investors would continue to restrain bond yields on the bet that there will be no interest-rate hikes for a couple of years, he said. If Harvard University professor Lawrence Summers was the choice, they might fear earlier tightening and bond yields would rise.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/20 ... tting-research.html

我是谁

wsjboy 发表于 2013-8-11 08:41 AM
No, count from the day when new fed chairman selection is announced, according to the original art ...

Paul Volcker in office Aug. 6, 1979
Alan Greenspan was nominated Jun2, 1987, in office Aug11, 1987
Ben S. Bernanke was nominated Oct24, 2005, in office Feb 1, 2006

哪位老大可以看到 Aug. 6, 1979/Jun2, 1987 后一个月SPYdaily 变化， 请帖到这里，俺送大大的胡币给您~~~~~~~~~~~~~


还有：前面还有11个Chairman of the Federal Reserve，  他们 nominated date  有谁知道吗~~~~~~~~  谢谢啦

wsjboy

我是谁 发表于 2013-8-11 10:30 AM
Paul Volcker in office Aug. 6, 1979
Alan Greenspan was nominated Jun2, 1987, in office Aug11, 198 ...

Thanks!
suggestion: watch monthly chart for historical changes

ctcld

Elephant 发表于 2013-8-11 05:45 AM
老大，那能是年底吗？

那该叫明年年初了。

每个Chairman的提名和国会批准的日期是不一样的。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chairman_of_the_Federal_Reserve

上次大本的是

The current chairman is Ben Bernanke, an academic nominated by George W. Bush and sworn into office on February 1, 2006, for a term lasting until January 31, 2010. He was nominated for a second term by President Barack Obama in 2009, and was confirmed by the Senate in 2010. Bernanke's second term ends on January 31, 2014. Bernanke succeeded Alan Greenspan, who served for more than 18 years during the terms of four U.S. Presidents.

所以
这次也不会例外应该在12月提名，一月批准。而圣诞Rally一般启动在11月起。