AAPL long-term trend reversed? breaking out? For what?

thyme1

it is looking nice now, why? what happened? what cause in underlying FA?

jamesmith

market's assumption for apple changed...

IF apple can maintain current level of earning for next 10 years (actually shrinking accounting for inflation), plus it's current cash level.  Investor get modest discount(about 15%) at $400 level. Current price $456 is about right, not much discount...
IF apple's earning for next 10 years can maintain with growth = inflation...current price is relatively cheap...
IF apple's earning can grow > inflation...then...

if apple earning drop significantly, no matter how solid the balance sheet is, it will bleed through all the cash

assumptions...assumptions...
It depends on how well one understands the business and how confident one is with his/her estimates...

rightonmoney

jamesmith 发表于 2013-7-30 11:00 AM
market's assumption for apple changed...

IF apple can maintain current level of earning for next  ...

Precisely.

bullpop

a while ago, I posted a chart about AAPL somewhere else around Jul 2.
1、周线图上$387是近期的底（根据sma50的影像）
2、AAPL的价值在$440左右。大龙三尺，无眼自活。AAPL不会那么轻易就完蛋的。所以
，我的thesis是AAPL应该在围绕这个价值区间上下波动。
3、这个图是周线图，还是有玄机的。例如$426这个数，是从头部掉下来的一个理想的
short cover的预期（根据sma50的影像），也是pipe bottom中那个k-bar组合的高点。
如果这个点被突破，一是阻力线，二是short squeeze.
4、入点在$426, target $484

bullpop

【 以下文字转载自 xxxx 讨论区 】
发信人: bullpop (大牛真牛！), 信区: xxxxx
标  题: some facts about $AAPL
发信站: xxxxx (Tue Apr 23 11:51:17 2013, 美东)

1. value investor

>$440

"Thus, for Apple to be worth only $440 (or less), you would need negative or
close to zero revenue growth, pre-tax operating margins of 25% (current
margin is closer to 35%, down from 40% plus a year ago) and the cost of
capital would have to be at 15% (the 97th percentile of US stocks)."

http://www.aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2013/02/apple-redux-tho

//时间上有些早，2月7日


2. option investor
April bullish sentiment
volume 720,741 calls vs. 489,184 puts
short interest declined 2.4%, short ratio ~1 day

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/marketcenters/optionscenter/c

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/marketcenters/optionscenter/c


3. ibd

very bad supply/demand, RS = 6 (very poor)

Composite Rating 57 Rank within Group: 9th 61%
EPS Rating 92 Rank within Group: 1st 100%
Best in Group Relative Strength Rating 6 Rank within Group: 19th 14%
SMR Rating A Rank within Group: 1st 100% Best in Group
Acc/Dist. Rating D Rank within Group: 17th 23%

bullpop

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AAPL&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

Support/Resistance
Type    Value    Conf.
resist.    479.93    2
resist.    465.21    4  <=== next, need to break out this zone $463~$466
resist.    453.22    2  <==== right now, it is here $456
supp    434.65    7  <=== was re-tested last Friday, July 26
supp    428.63    5
supp    423.20    5
supp    419.23    4
supp    400.75    2
supp    391.36    2
supp    387.97    2

Read more at http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/a ... Soh3rv6VZB8tAWei.99