狗剩看 FOMC --- 推波助澜

cougar

Published: Wed 19 Jun 2013 2:59 PM PDT

    The FOMC was more hawkish than we had expected. First, Chairman Bernanke suggested that tapering would start “later” this year and might conclude in mid-2014 assuming a 7% unemployment rate at that point. Second, the committee moved down its unemployment rate forecasts by about 0.2 percentage points throughout the forecast horizon. Third, the committee noted that downside risks had “diminished” since last fall; while that is obvious at some level, it is noteworthy that they chose to emphasize it. Fourth, although inflation projections moved down, the chairman was somewhat dismissive of the recent inflation drop, attributing much of it to special factors. Fifth, the chairman was a bit more reluctant to push back on the increase in short-term rate expectations than we had expected, although he did state explicitly that the 6.5% unemployment threshold might eventually move down.
    Our takeaway is that the risk to our forecast of QE tapering starting in December has increased. However, our own GDP forecast for the second half of 2013 is more than ½ percentage point below the committee’s, and our labor market forecasts are also less optimistic.

好像狗剩年中SP500目标为 ~1575。谁查一查。

greentree

cc2265

blackjack

使劲折腾吧，拿现金，坐bluechips.