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发表于 2013-5-30 06:57 PM
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天地 发表于 2013-5-30 06:33 PM 
说真的,你怎摸能看出 IBM 先到210?分享下您的思路,谢谢
1) it is a gamble with high expected values... If I don't know anything about IBM, assume 50/50 chances, payout of winning is 3 times more... Expected return = chance of winning * amount I will win - chance of losing * amount I will lose
2) I know a little bit about IBM. To put it in a short way: their 5 year plan is to achieve $20 EPS by 2015, they have decent track record of achieving their target. At ER announcement, they sounded very confident to achieve this.
I wish they drop to 170 so I can buy a lot more...if not i can still win the bet...-_-!
Buffett said he has been reading BM 10K for many many years. He finally bought it after reading 2011 report. Take a look, it's full of graphs and easy to read, I promise :)
http://www.ibm.com/annualreport/2011/ghv/ |
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