美联储QE造成的通胀远超官方数字

zmkh

A week ago, it was only Esther George, the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President, as the lone dissenter at the Open Market Committee's March meeting. For the second time in a row she voted against the continuation of the Fed's $85 billion monthly bond purchasing policy, citing concerns that such "aggressive stimulus could heighten the risk of inflation and financial instability."

Since then, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley has also touched upon this theme of "tapering" the bond buys, as have the non-voting presidents from Dallas and Philadelphia in recent speeches.

Maybe this trio sees something or wants to send a message.

"I'm not criticizing the Fed for the position they've taken and the policy implementation they have taken," says Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital Group, in the attached video. "But the bottom line is because of quantitative easing, and because the dollar is the world's reserve currency, it does have an impact."

While monthly headline inflation data continues to come in below the Fed's 2% target, Kenny and many other market watchers see it showing up elsewhere "in everything we assume is a part of our daily life."

Those items include the classic data carve-outs of food and fuel, as well as in commodities, and even in things like farm land - despite ongoing drought conditions.

By his math, the cost of Q-E, at least as it pertains to crude oil, is pushing up the price by about 50%, instead of the $65 a barrel level where he thinks current supply and demand metrics imply that it really should be. But since the Fed is actively (and justifiably) putting more dollars into the economy, he says that has resulted in "more dollars chasing that fuel," which of course leads to higher prices.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may not say so, but Kenny argues that "the stock market is another case in point" of ongoing intervention.

Related: Bernanke Absolves Fed, Says Nothing Is Out of Line With Record High Stocks

"The soft bid we see in equity markets and that we run into every time there's sell-off, that soft bid is the direct result of quantitative easing," he says, acknowledging that some of the recent move higher is also the result of money coming out of bonds and into stocks, as well as cheap valuations.

But whether it's food, fuel, farmland or even shares of Ford (F) that are being impacted, the open-ended question remains; can Bernanke shrink the balance sheet, halt the stimulus, and normalize interest rates without crashing the ship?

When asked if he is confident that Bernanke will succeed at pulling off this monetary miracle on the back nine, Kenny tellingly answers, "I'm very hopeful."

rightonmoney

有时我真不知道是我太愚钝，还是散户们都经历过惊涛骇浪，见怪不怪了。

全球都疯狂地印钞票，美国单QE1印点钱，如果用一美元连起来，可以从地球到月亮。什么意思，就是这已经是天文数字了，再加上之后还有QE2,QE3。 现在官方居然说通胀控制在2%。




当然，如果了解这些数据的计算方法，对这些数据也就一笑了之了。

比如像失业率的计算公式，分母是有能力并愿意参加就业的人，分子是没有工作的人。那些失业找不到工作，被迫试图自己创业的人，就不属于计算失业率的分子了。当然，领取失业金40周之后还找不到工作的人，也不属于分子了。这就是我们看到的失业率下降的原因。

befriend

zmkh

rightonmoney 发表于 2013-3-27 03:34 PM
有时我真不知道是我太愚钝，还是散户们都经历过惊涛骇浪，见怪不怪了。

全球都疯狂地印钞票，美国单QE1印 ...

感谢给加分，呵呵！
有句话叫满水煮青蛙。不知道还有谁记得当年油价刚涨到2刀时，有议员发起对石油公司的调查，后来就不了了之。等油价突破3刀时，媒体都懒得报道了。现在都4刀了。