TYX 和 TLT 短期内是有对应性。但是跨越一个较长时期(比如从2008到2012)这种对应性就没了。 原因很简单,TLT对应的bond holding是在变动的. 所以呢,看weekly chart, i would prefer $TYX. anyway, short term target is marked on the chart. Little bears can hope or pray the 3.50% yield on 30yr treasury is the peak yield for a while. otherwise, we will see SPX 1600 in 2013.
silicon_beaver 发表于 2013-2-2 01:56 AM
I like to use TNX instead of TYX.
Fed's treasury purchase from QE focuses more on 7-10yr maturity. 30YR treasury yield can reflect better than 10YR yield about the market expectation at inflation risk vs. flight-to-safety.