CSCO

jamesmith

Forward to 24 minute and 20 seconds to listen to CSCO valuation

bububaba

Cobra , pls take a look again:)

marketstudent

Typical value trap. CSCO is in the same situation that Lucent/NT was in 10 years ago.
Government protected market won't work any more like 20 years ago.

jerrywu

当时惘然

谢谢楼主分享，老头真能白活。洒家评两句:

1. 用他的理论，苹果比CSCO更有吸引力；
2. 这个视频是在九月中，当时CSCO价格比上周五高$2.5--$3;用他的award/risk理论，现在已经有4，远远大于老头在九月中的3.5了，但是洒家仍然不买。。。
3. 周二，CSCO出ER。洒家不敢说CSCO必跌，但是，绝对不敢看好CSCO；
4. 3-5月内 $15以下应该能看到，到$13- 的话洒家就不想说了。。。

befriend

jamesmith

当时惘然 发表于 2012-11-11 09:37 PM
谢谢楼主分享，老头真能白活。洒家评两句:

1. 用他的理论，苹果比CSCO更有吸引力；

I certainly don't agree with everything he said.
But CSCO does show attractive value.
The problem is everything related to PC is cheap right now, market is not favoring these kind of tech company like before, thus such a low valuation. I am not sure how long this situation will remain.

From 2002 to 2012:
annual revenue growth is 9.31%.
annual earning growth is 10.84%.
annual eps growth is 14.34%.

These growth come with P/E keeps going down, this agrees with the assumption that market doesn't favor tech company now, they are not the "hot" thing anymore.
Growth doesn't mean anything to an investor if price doesn't go up. Before the only way investor is able to share CSCO's growth was by price going up.
However this started to change a bit when CSCO started paying dividend in 2011, this is a good way to share profit with investors, and if CSCO can keep growing its earnings and dividends in next 5 years, this would be a good value play.
I don't know enough about networking business to have high accuracy predicting CSCO future earnings, however it shows a somewhat consistent historical growth. I hope someone knows about networking market can share his/her insight.

jamesmith

marketstudent 发表于 2012-11-11 04:10 PM
Typical value trap. CSCO is in the same situation that Lucent/NT was in 10 years ago.
Government pr ...

From 2002 to 2012:
annual revenue growth is 9.31%.
annual earning growth is 10.84%.
annual eps growth is 14.34%.

If we assume things slows down to 6% growth, and dividend grow at 4% per year. We get the following


With earning of 10760.67 million, taking a 9% discount rate, we get 119.56 Billion Market Cap. 34% difference with current market cap. Not bad for a margin...
P/E today is 11.33, with EPS of 1.994, if P/E stay the same, we get share price of 22.59.
Current Price is 16.83, CSCO increased dividend to 0.14 per quarter (http://investor.cisco.com/splits.cfm),  dividend yield of 3.33%.

I don't know enough about networking market though...I don't have any position in CSCO yet...I am also looking at IBM and ORCL... -_-!
let's see what CSCO reports today.

jamesmith

Another thing I don't like about CSCO is that both of its founders are fired at 1990 by the CEO they brought in. I am not sure how strong is the current management team. This isn't as attractive when compared to ORCL's founder CEO Larry Ellison with proven track record.