Forex/Futures ST for Week 10/21 - 10/26

greenback

While the last Friday's slide is scary ... the issue facing us now is the next move more down or sideway at least.

Let's look at currencies ...

AUD clearly broke out of the down trend and is making a higher low so far and above the down trend line ... so I do not think the sky is falling yet ... if you know the place that AUD plays in risk assets.

greenback

EURO is not as bullish as AUD but it didn't crash that much in the first place. I want to remind you that AUD's previous steep crash was due to RBA's rate cut.

So both are doing fine ...

greenback

GOLD has been bearish or side way for a while after making the high couple of weeks ago. And I haven't changed that downward move target for quite some time, but really it hasn't gone down that much but it's already third leg ... I think a bottom is close in GOLD ...

greenback

CL simply refuses to go further down ... apparently, but it doesn't want to go up either ... more like a range, but I'll keep my breakout set up in place, which is a bullish one.

greenback

Now let's look at bonds ... I cannot say they are that bullish even with Friday's jump ... looks still missing another down leg to seal a bottom at least.

greenback

Finally stock indices ...

Given the above analyses of other risk on/off assets, I'm more inclined to argue for a range action in ES. In addition, TF is also due for a rebound: it has hit the lower bound of the channel.

greenback

From the FA point of view, we still need to get prepared for macroeconomic surprises, i.e. those in the housing and EURO fronts. These areas recently tend to generate upward surprises that may dampen the negativity from the ER season.

Bulls' hope would be continued upward surprises from the macro fronts. Otherwise, an intermediate top may have indeed formed. Of course, any bears betting risk off should consider what FED would move if indeed macro conditions deteriorate. The lesson I learned the hard way from last year was NOT betting against central bankers with that 100% confidence.

austinjoe

Thank you for your sharing. Agree on ES is rang bounded inside [1416,1465] now, it's swing around [1421,1439] and we would see which way to breakout.

greenback

So big shark was holding the line ... rebounded exactly at the ES S/R ...

May test it again in the next 24 hours ...

greenback

15m chart of ES is giving a long entry ... with target leading to 1446.

MFTHT

我跳过这一波了，看不清楚。等下一个信号吧。


恭喜绿老大发财。

想起郑智化的一首歌“我的脚步想要去烧顶， 而我的心却想要去抄底...”，呵呵。

greenback

MFTHT 发表于 2012-10-23 12:25 AM
我跳过这一波了，看不清楚。等下一个信号吧。

I'm also quite busy with other things ... but I'm trading my 401K account ...

greenback

greenback 发表于 2012-10-22 04:26 PM
15m chart of ES is giving a long entry ... with target leading to 1446.

Apparently 15m chart is not reliable without the backup of 4h chart ... ES made new low!

greenback

Need another bottom/down leg to make a nice bottom in ES ...

MFTHT

俺在1380设了个地雷，等这两根红线。

MFTHT

瞎琢磨了一下，短期的牛牛不太妙了。那根红线可能撑不住，也许会在那里走一个熊旗?

greenback

Finally ZB is ready for long ... however, ZN and ZF are still below the S/R line, so if you want to be safe, wait a bit more ...

greenback

Boring and wired day, both bonds and stocks are not happy with the FED announcement.

greenback

greenback 发表于 2012-10-23 06:07 PM
Finally ZB is ready for long ... however, ZN and ZF are still below the S/R line, so if you want to  ...

It seems that waiting for confirms by all three bond types is a good idea ... The breakout by ZB was a false one ...

greenback

Well guess professional traders also need to to consult their advisors before making more waves ... Let's see whose price actions today will prevail in the days to come ...