SPX swing trade diary

austinjoe

Thanks for Greenback 老大 permission to give me a chance to open a post here to record my SPX trading record using 缠论 on 5F level.

Here is today's morning alert that I posted on main board. Prepare to enter shot position today on 5F level --
http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=189280&pid=1924700&fromuid=2718

"12/23/2012 Morning alert, I made an error on 1F线段 last Friday, it's 4 not 6 as I put in post#59. Hence there is no 1F中枢 formed last Friday, 4  1F线段 formed on SPX yesterday. 1F中枢 [1423, 1426.5]. In last post#64, it's 5F中枢[1430,1444]震荡, not 1F中枢震荡.

We're heading big gap down bellow 1423 as of now. After opeing, SPX bounce up could not hit 1423 is 1F 3rd sell point, also keep in mid that there are 5F中枢 and 30F中枢 that has 1430 as zone low edge above, so 1430 the strong resist today, any bounce fail fail bellow 1430 could leads to violent down run."

bucks

MFTHT

因为第一句话，想给你一个鸡蛋。这里大门对谁都是敞开的，尤其是对你这样的高手，呵呵。
欢迎畅所欲言，顶顶顶。

Diffusion

greenback

Thanks a lot for sharing!

austinjoe

No order today as only 1F 3rd sell point on SPX 1419.34. Watch 1430 closely as next bounce up fail on it would be 5F level sell point.

Here is what I posted on main board --
http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=189280&pid=1925049&fromuid=2718
"10/23/2012 close. SPX made 3 1F线段 today, the 3rd one is not finished yet. The high of 2nd 1F线段 -- SPX 1419.34 is the 3rd sell point for yesterday 1F中枢 [1423, 1426.5]. SPX now broke into previous 30F中枢 formed during end of Aug 2012.

Watch 1407, 1396 as support and 1423, 1430 as resist tomorrow. next 1F线段 up -- if can not hit 1430, that will be a 3rd sell point on 5F level."

greenback

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-23 04:22 PM
No order today as only 1F 3rd sell point on SPX 1419.34. Watch 1430 closely as next bounce up fail o ...

Good call!

azure4068

虽然不明白你的理论，但是一定要顶你，欢迎一起写日记

Bencat

austinjoe

No order as I missed the opening gap up in a meeting. I did see the 2nd high 1417 around 10AM CST, due to FED statement this afternoon, I waited rather jumped in. Now we had a new 5F中枢 [1407.56, 1416.13] which is not overlap the previous one from 10/05 drop, so we are in 2 5F中枢 down trend now. It looks SPX will hit 1396 before end this 5F down run.

Here is what I posted on the main board --
http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=189280&pid=1925615&fromuid=2718
"10/24/2012. SPX is too weak today, the open gap up made the previous 5F中枢[1430,1444] 3rd sell point on SPX 1420.04. It also made the end of life of this 5F中枢.

SPX finished 7 1F线段 today with 2 from yesterday, a new 5F中枢 is formed [1407.56, 1416.13], the Min /Max of this new 5F中枢 is 1407.56 / 1420.04. SPX is on its 8th 1F线段 heading down.

Watch 1F中枢[1411.45,1415.95] and 5F中枢[1407.56, 1416.13] -- let's see how SPX escape from them. "

greenback

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-24 04:10 PM
No order as I missed the opening gap up in a meeting. I did see the 2nd high 1417 around 10AM CST, d ...

Good idea to stay on the side ...

ethanlinear

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-24 03:10 PM
No order as I missed the opening gap up in a meeting. I did see the 2nd high 1417 around 10AM CST, d ...

austinjoe

greenback 发表于 2012-10-24 02:17 PM
Good idea to stay on the side ...

Greenback 老大, when you have time, would you please help me understand the relationship between /ZB /ZN /ZF and following EFTs:

SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond (JNK),
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG)
iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF)
iShares Core Total US Bond Market ETF (AGG).

What i could read out is that iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) is very similar to /ZB which is 30 yr Treas Bond Future on chart. But the price is not the same --   The TLT is 121.5 while /ZB is 147 today. Is there a /Zx for 20 yr Treas Bond Future?

greenback

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-24 05:19 PM
Greenback 老大, when you have time, would you please help me understand the relationship between / ...

JNK and HYG are for low-quality corporate bonds;
LQD is for high-quality corporate bonds;
TLT/TLH/IEF/IEI are for treasuries of different maturities, though none of them exactly match ZB/ZN/ZF, if you read the ETF descriptions ...
AGG is a mix of everything.

austinjoe

10/25/2012, no order as it's a boring day --  SPX 中枢震荡: 1F中枢[1411.45,1415.95] and 5F中枢[1407.56, 1416.13].

SPX finished 6 1F线段, the 7th 1F线段 up is not done yet. SPX made new low 1405.14 for this 5F down trend which is bearish.

In past 3 days, SPX in diamond consolidation. It will break out, direction is unknown at this time.

austinjoe

greenback 发表于 2012-10-24 09:35 PM
JNK and HYG are for low-quality corporate bonds;
LQD is for high-quality corporate bonds;
TLT/ ...

Thank you for your answer!

Since both JNK / HYG are low quality corporate bonds, I guess they are risky asset -- and if market chase these risky asset, then normally market heads north, right?

For TLT/ZB/ZN/ZF... they belong to safe class, when their price rise, it means market try to avoid risk which is generally market heads down.

Please correct if I'm wrong.

greenback

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-25 04:19 PM
Thank you for your answer!

Since both JNK / HYG are low quality corporate bonds, I guess they  ...

That's correct ...

austinjoe

greenback 发表于 2012-10-25 02:23 PM
That's correct ...

Thank you for your answer -- Greenback 老大 :--o)

austinjoe

10/26/2012, Another boring day as SPX still in 中枢震荡, hence no 5F level buy point. The 5F中枢[1407.56, 1416.13], and the latest 1F中枢[1409.58, 1413.67] is made by 3 1F线段 formed yesterday.

SPX finished 7th 1F线段 from end of yesterday, and 4 new 1F线段 today, the 5th 1F线段 down is not fished yet -- wait next Monday. If SPX keep swing around 1405 -- 140 another 2-3 days, it will form a Day中枢 here. Then future SPX direction could be tricky -- both up and down are possible.

austinjoe

Thanks for "ethanlinear" question, I made a mistake on post#19 " If SPX keep swing around 1405 -- 140 another 2-3 days, it will form a Day中枢 here. Then future SPX direction could be tricky -- both up and down are possible." It's not time for Day中枢 yet, it should be 1 level high than 5F中枢 which is 30F中枢.