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发表于 2012-9-14 10:31 PM
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busted 发表于 2012-9-14 09:12 PM 
I do not understand, if bond yield goes higher, mortgage is going higher too, which will prevent peo ...
With QE3, How Low Will Mortgage Rates Go? (from Forbes)
Let QE3 begin. Today the Federal Open Market Committee announced a new round of asset purchases — better known as quantitative easing — that will target the housing market. The FOMC plans to buy $40 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities per month on an open-ended basis in an effort to further drive down interest rates.
“The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions,” according to the FOMC’s press statement.
In addition to purchasing mortgage-backed securities, the committee said Operation Twist, the bond swapping program, will be extended through the end of the year and its forward guidance through 2015. The Fed’s balance sheet will grow by $40 billion per month and holdings of long-term securities by about $85 billion per month through the end of the year.
During a press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said QE3 should put downward pressure on mortgage rates, helping the housing market. Mortgage rates already hover near historic lows. The 30-year fixed rate mortgages were 3.55% in the week ending Wednesday, according to Freddie Mac, and 15-year fixed rate mortgages were 2.85%. Economists believe QE3 will take them lower or at the very least, maintain the current rates.
“Maybe not next week, but the 30-year mortgage rate could come down to 3.25%,” projects Stuart Hoffman, chief economist of PNC Financial Services Group.
He says the spread between the 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage has been unusually high. In other words Treasury rates have dropped faster than mortgage rates in recent months. Typically, 30-year mortgages hover about 1.5 points above Treasuries. QE3 could restore that balance by pushing mortgage rates down to match Treasuries, which currently run about 1.75%.
Hoffman expects the 15-year fixed rate mortgage to eventually drop to 2.75%, as well. The last time interest on either loan type hit those kinds of lows was the late 1930s during the Great Depression.
Lower rates could incentivize some prospective buyers who have been sitting on the proverbial fence to buy a home. In turn, increased sales could spark builders to move forward with new construction; new construction could create jobs in an industry where employment levels are still 26% below what they were five years ago.
The “coulds” sound promising — yet housing economists remain very wary. “This makes home ownership cheaper, but that’s only one factor going into owning a home,” says Jed Kolko, chief economist of Trulia.com. ”The biggest obstacle is actually saving for a downpayment.” Still, home ownership is now cheaper than renting in all of the 100 largest U.S. markets, according to the latest Rent versus Buy report from Trulia.
“It should help some people feel better about buying homes, but they still have to actually qualify,” adds Hoffman. Buyers, realtors and builders have lamented tight lending standards for years now.
With the unemployment rate stubbornly stuck above 8%, the labor market suffering the lowest rate of participation in 30 years, and income levels down again according to the latest Census report, mortgage rates alone won’t trigger a flood of buyers to the market.
“I think this will have a bigger impact on refinancing than on home sales because the mortgage rate hasn’t held home sales back, jobs have,” says Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics. Just how many homeowners will pay the fees to lock in at a lower rate remains to be seen: many have already refinanced at low rates and more are unable to refinance because of a lack of home equity.
Moody’s Analytics projects 30-year fixed rate mortgages will bottom at 3.5% late this year. “Realistically we will see them dip below that following the Fed’s actions,” notes Sweet.
“We’re likely not going to see a significant improvement over the next couple months as we enter the winter months, but I think the Fed’s actions will pay dividends in the next spring season. That’s when we will start to see the benefits.”
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-9-14 09:34 PM
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如果不是事情太多，昨天应该进了
发表于 2012-9-14 10:52 PM
....上 
