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要点：历史上这种情况下股市都会涨。平均12月回报30%。
When sell-side analyst are very bearish, it’s a sign to buy stocks, writes Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. And at the end of August they continued to be more bearish than they’ve been in decades.
BAC’s “sell-side indicator”, which measures Wall Street sentiment based on strategists’ recommendations for how much of their portfolios clients should allocate to equities, rose slightly in August for the first time in six months. But the indicator was up just 0.6 percentage points at 44.4, the second lowest level since the stats were first recorded in 1985 (the lowest was in July).
“This suggests that sell side strategists’ bearishness on equities remains at 27 year extremes. Given the contrarian nature of this indicator, we are encouraged by Wall Street’s lack of optimism and the fact that strategists are recommending that investors significantly underweight equities at 44.4% vs. a traditional long-term average benchmark weighting of 60-65%. The indicator remains firmly in “Buy” territory, a signal that it first flashed in May. Recall that we adjusted our Buy and Sell thresholds in November in an attempt to better incorporate secular shifts in equity sentiment.”
It turns out this indicator has one heck of a track record:
“Historically, when our indicator has been below 50, total returns over the subsequent 12 months have been positive 100% of the time, with median 12-month returns of +30%.”
The Barron’s cover story this week also points to more gains ahead. |
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发表于 2012-9-4 01:23 PM
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发表于 2012-9-4 01:41 PM
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